335
FXUS63 KDDC 190404
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1104 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A thunderstorm complex is expected to bring widespread
  rainfall, locally heavy, along with areas of damaging winds
  Friday night and early Saturday.

- Afternoon temperatures will remain below July normals - mainly
  in the 80s - through this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

18z observations and upper air analysis shows a 5960 dm
anticyclone centered over the 4 corners region leading to
northwest flow through the central and northern plains. A
departing vort max is moving through central Oklahoma which has
led to subsidence and sunny to partly cloudy skies in southwest
Kansas. Upstream an approaching vort max is located in central
Nebraska and a developing shortwave is situated in northeast
Colorado.

Tonight two areas of convection are possible with the 12Z CAM
signals.  One area will be in eastern Colorado through northwest
Kansas by early evening with the approaching shortwave moving in
from Colorado and Nebraska.  This area will have the strongest
forcing aloft with an fgen band in the 700-850 mb layer straddling
the KS-CO border accompanied with a 500 mb vort max.  By the time
the storms arrive to our CWA it should be post sunset so CAPE values
will have dropped to the 500-600 J/kg range and 0-6 km bulk shear
values will be 30-35 kts.  Overall the storms will be strong to
potentially marginal severe by the time they arrive.  Second round
of convection is hinted at after midnight along and east of the
highway 283 corridor with modest theta e advection and a warm front
in the 700 mb level breaking the cap and spotty elevated
thunderstorms developing.  POPs for both of these areas will be ~20%
given the isolated nature of the storms.

Friday with the departing shortwave we should once again have DNVA
and subsidence leading to clearing skies. 850 mb temperatures
should warm through the day with decent WAA leading to 26-27 (C)
along the Colorado border and closer to 20-24 (C) in our
central and eastern zones. With this we should be a few degrees
warmer with forecast ensemble mean highs in the upper 80s east
to low to mid 90s west. A much stronger signal for rain is
coming for Friday night as a strong wave for July standards will
come out of the northwest from central Nebraska through central
Kansas during the overnight hours. Best severe weather
potential will be in Nebraska and northwest Kansas where CAPE
values and theta e advection will be the highest and the storms
should gradually weaken to general thunderstorms as they move
south and east through our CWA. This system should bring some
healthy rains to southwest Kansas as probabilities of > 0.10
inch of rain in general are 30-50% for areas along and north of
a Liberal to Great Bend line and locally higher amounts of rain
greater than 1 inch are possible in the stronger storms.

Long range ensembles keep a stout longwave trough through the
central and eastern CONUS and the 5940 anticyclone across the
western CONUS suggesting this pattern of cooler temperatures
and off and on rain chances will continue for several days.
NBMv4.2 POPs of 20-30% are included through at least Tuesday
suggesting that the nature of the rain will continue to be
spotty thunderstorms as opposed to a large complex at this time.
By mid next week ensemble trends show the 5940 dm anticyclone
starting to build further east which will gradually move the
trough east as well and we may start to see a slight warming
trend in temperatures and lesser chances of rain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

VFR will continue through this TAF cycle. After 15z Fri, south
winds will increase at all airports, gusting 25-27 kts. A
thunderstorm complex (MCS) is expected to arrive in SW KS near
the end of this TAF period, and using 00z ARW/NAM as a guide,
included VCTS/CB mentions at the end of this TAF package at all
airports. Strong outflow winds to near 50 kts may accompany
these storms in the 03-09z Sat time frame.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Turner