599
FXUS63 KDDC 132059
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
359 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very hot and dry weather will persist through Monday, with
  highs 100 to 108.

- Much cooler temperatures are predicted starting Tuesday, along
  with daily chances for thunderstorms.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

An upper level ridge will remain across the southern Rockies and
southern high plains through Monday, with some flattening of the
ridge on Monday. The downslope plume and hottest temperatures
will sag southward through Monday ahead of the next front.
Temperatures will likely reach 104-108 along I-70 and across
west central Kansas again Sunday afternoon. Opted to extend the
heat advisory southward for today to better match up with
neighboring offices Even though heat indices will stay just
below 105 today, the next two days will be very hot so that the
longevity of the heat warrants some flexibility in thresholds.
The air mass will continue to be very dry so that heat indices
will continue to be slightly below the actual temperatures.
Given the flattening of the ridge Monday and better pre-frontal
downslope, temperatures could reach 105-109 across most, if not
all, of central and southwest Kansas. Given the dry air, the
nights won`t feel all that bad as temperatures fall into the
70-75 range and dewpoints remain low.

Upper level ridging will shift westward by Tuesday as an upper
level trough progresses southeastward out of Canada into the
upper Midwest. This will push a cold front through western
Kansas Monday night. As is typical this time of year, much
higher low level moisture will advect southward in the wake of
the front, with 65-70 dewpoints. Moreover, in summer, the
southern extremity of the westerlies is the favored place for
thunderstorms with locally heavy rains since this is where
fronts stall out and where moisture content is very high. Often
the heaviest rains move eastward from the Colorado border during
early evening and into central Kansas during the early morning.
However, in this upcoming pattern for Tuesday and Wednesday,
storms will likely be ongoing at all times of day across varying
parts of central and southwest Kansas. At any given point
though, rain may not last very long, but could be locally heavy
when it does fall given the expected high precipitable water,
weak convective outflows and slow storm propagation in the deep
moist air mass. That said, ensembles of CMCE, GEFS, ICON and
ECMWF show 5-25% or less probability of 24 hr rainfall exceeding
1", with the highest chances depicted by the GEFS. This
indicates that any intense rainfall will be spotty. Expect highs
in the 80s Tuesday and Wednesday.

By Thursday all of the thunderstorm clusters over the previous
two days will have shunted an effective front well south of
Kansas, with heavier rains shifting southward. Surface high
pressure will be located over the upper Midwest, ridging
southwestward to the southern high plains. More stable
conditions will be in place over central Kansas, but weaker
capping can be expected over extreme southwest Kansas. Given the
meridional mid level flow, any capping inversion will be weak
across the southwesternmost counties of Kansas. Thus, despite
the cooler temperatures, isolated to scattered t-storms can`t
be ruled out Thursday and Friday for places like Ulysses and
Elkhart.

By Saturday, a shortwave trough will progress southward along
the eastern periphery of the upper level ridge and approach
western Kansas. Instability will be limited but moisture will be
abundant and mid level capping very weak. Thus, shower activity
will likely return Friday night and persist through Saturday,
especially from Dodge City and Ness City westward. The weekend
rains will probably not be as heavy as those of early week and the
various 1" exceedance probabilities from the various ensemble
means are still low (between 5 and 20%).

However, despite the ensembles showing only minor chances for
intense rainfall at any one location, the chances for at least
some beneficial rains are high, with the 7-day mean
precipitation from the GEFS and ECMWF EPS from Tuesday through
Monday of 1 to 1.5", along with 50-60% chances of 1" or greater
rains over this period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

A surface trough will remain across western Kansas through the
period. East of the trough axis, south winds will persist this
afternoon at 18-23 kts. With the loss of daytime heating, winds
will gradually weaken to 15kts by 01z and 12-13 kts by 08z. An
isolated, high-based t-storm with gusty winds can`t be ruled
out between 22 and 02z close to the surface trough near KGCK,
but will probably stay west of the TAF site.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Monday for KSZ030-031-
043>046-061>066-079-081-090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Finch
AVIATION...Finch