218
FXUS63 KDDC 150806
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
306 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A moderate level of heat risk continues through this evening.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Tonight and
  Tuesday night. Locally heavy rainfall and marginally severe
  storms are more likely (60%) Tuesday night.

- Not as hot, more comfortable temperatures begin Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Another hot day today is anticipated, probably hotter than the
last two as temperatures climb into the 104-108 degree range,
for actual 2 meter temperatures, with accompanying surface dew
points falling to the upper 50s west and still hovering around
the 60 degree mark in the eastern counties driving heat indices
even higher  and possibly as high as the 105 to 109 degree
range. The heat advisory for the afternoon remains intact across
the entire area. We are still 83 degrees in Dodge at 2 am. The
heat risk category right now is in the major category (3 out of
5), and defined as a level of heat that affects anyone without
effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Additionally
impacts are likely in some health systems, heat-sensitive
industries and infrastructure.

Convection is anticipated, (by the number of CAMS producing it)
along a prefrontal trough over west central and northwest
Kansas later this afternoon, and may allow storms to begin
impacting anywhere from Syracuse to Scott City by 6 to 7 pm CDT.
The HREF shows a widespread 700 mb temperatures of at least 15
degrees. With such a deep hot atmosphere, and little shear, the
marginally severe convective storm environment looks primarily
conducive to damaging thunderstorm wind gusts. Between any
convective outflow surface airmass modification and the affects
of an advancing cold front turning winds out of the northeast on
Tuesday, temperatures will be trimmed abut 10 degrees or more
on Tuesday. The NBM 25th to 75th percentile forecasts for
afternoon highs range from upper 80s north to mid 90s south, to
the warmer 75th percentile, with a more widely distributed mid
and upper 90s forecast. The trimmed temperatures forecast comes
with an uptick in atmospheric moisture content as the HREF 1.5
PWAT spreads southward behind the cold front for the 16th
through 18th (Tuesday through Thursday). Reflecting at the
surface with more widespread upper 60s dew points, this more
unstable, better moisture environment will be a better fuel
setup for the many CAMs that are showing scattered to numerous
thunderstorms spreading east across Colorado during the day, and
poised to move across western Kansas in the evening.
Precipitation probabilities Tuesday evening have ramped up to 70
percent in the west between 7 pm and midnight, and 50 to 60
percent everywhere else beyond midnight. With the easterly
upslope post frontal winds and MCS ongoing overnight, the storms
and showers might be lingering Wednesday morning with much
cloudiness to significantly slow the typical diurnal temperature
rise. Ensembles means have continued to show 80 for highs
through the rest of the week and tempered lows in the 60s.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024


Decaying convection over the southeast Colorado counties has
produced a convective outflow boundary that should reach the GCK
airport between about 0515 and 0530 UTC. Post frontal winds were
north between 26 and 40 knots, and momentum is naturally
expected to wane significantly. Dissipating mid level clouds
this afternoon will be coupled with light westerly surface winds
as an overall high pressure regime aloft remains in place. By
the evening hours, or between 23 and 01 UTC, surface based
thunderstorm development is possible (10-20% areal coverage,
along a prefrontal trough over nw Kansas, potentially reaching
the Garden City to Hays corridor in the pre sunset hours Monday
evening. Predictability is too low for any prevailing mention in
TAF, and marginal as well to even call it in the vicinity at
this time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Hot conditions Today will be followed by thunderstorm chances
(20-30%) this evening with potential for thunderstorm wind gust and
therefore variable wind shifts. Outside of these storm risks, expect
light southerly winds Today , but a cold front Tuesday will bring
those winds out of the northeast, with a little more gust.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Russell
AVIATION...Russell
FIRE WEATHER...MR