755
FXUS63 KDDC 152317
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
617 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- MCS potential Tuesday evening with gusty winds and brief heavy
  rains the main threats

- Pattern shift in the upper levels will bring cooler
  temperatures across southwest Kansas

- Pattern shift will also keep chances of rain and storms in the
  forecast through the end of the week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

19Z observations and upper air analysis shows one pocket of
cloud cover moving through southwest Kansas roughly from Dodge
City to Pratt which has held the temperatures somewhat at bay in
the mid 90s. In the areas of full sun like Hays, Scott City,
Elkhart, Medicine Lodge the advertised 100+ degree weather has
achieved. The large 5940 dm heat dome over the four corners
region has moved into southwest Kansas with a shortwave
developing around the eastern edge of the upper ridge.

For tonight if we can get temperatures in the 105+ range that
should be hot enough to reach convective temperature and
overcome the 16-18 (C) temperatures in the mid levels to have
clouds and possibly some storms develop along a weak frontal
boundary roughly from Pueblo, CO to north central Kansas and a
700 to 850 mb fgen in the vicinity of the front. Storms should
initially be isolated and high based with the main threat being
some brief gusty winds as DCAPE values will be around 1800
J/kg. More organized storms are showing up in the CAM models
late tonight. This round of storms will be in northeast Colorado
and northwest Kansas and eventually moving into our CWA around
midnight along the I-70 corridor.

For Tuesday as the storms diminish and the residual outflow
boundary moves into Oklahoma the short term models are agreeing
with a spike in moisture as dew points could be in the upper 60s
to around 70 in the mid morning. With winds staying easterly to
southeasterly much of the day there isn`t much mixing to lower
the dew points much more than into the low 60s by the late
afternoon. The upper level winds should be more northwesterly as
the 5960 dm high will retreat back to the desert southwest and
allow a 700 mb shortwave over the Colorado rockies to develop
thunderstorms by around 19Z. As the storms race to the south and
east they will have an environment of around 2000 J/kg CAPE and
0-6 km bulk shear values of 30-35 kts in southwest Kansas which
will give us a hail threat and gusty winds 70 mph or more. We
should also see some decent widespread rainfall amounts as 0.5
inch of rain or more ranges from 30-80% in southwest Kansas with
the highest confidence for areas south and west of a Scott City
to Coldwater line.

Long range ensembles are in good agreement that days 3-7 should
keep the brunt of the heat well off to the west as the upper
high retreats to west of the four corners region. This will keep
the upper level winds generally in northwest flow. This means
our temperatures will be more on the mild side as highs will be
in the 80s. With northwest flow we will also have periodic
shortwaves come in which will give us chances of rain off and on
through these periods as well as NBMv4.2 keeps some 20 POPs in
through Friday and higher chances of rain for the weekend
(30-40) with a more stout longwave trough moving through western
Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 605 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Focus on these 00z TAFS will be convection overnight. Isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms between 00z and 02z will be
west of the Garden City area but several of the CAMS are coming
into better agreement with a cluster of thunderstorms moving out
of eastern Colorado and across western Kansas between 04z and
08z. Current track of these storms were favoring the best
opportunity for convection to occur in the Hays area between 06z
and 09z. As these storms pass a period of northwest winds
gusting to around 40knots will be possible. At Garden City and
Dodge City the probability for thunderstorms near the airport is
low enough that VCTS will be used between 04z and 08z
Tuesday. Short term ensembles and latest BUFR soundings all
indicating high cloud bases (>9000ft AGL). Winds also not
expected to be as strong. These gusty northerly winds will
decrease into the 10 to 15 knot range once these thunderstorms
pass with clearing conditions developing. After 09z North winds
of around 10 knots can be expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Hot conditions Today will be followed by thunderstorm chances
(20-30%) this evening with potential for thunderstorm wind gust
and therefore variable wind shifts. Outside of these storm
risks, expect light southerly winds Today , but a cold front
Tuesday will bring those winds out of the northeast, with a
little more gust.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Tatro