Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
312 FXUS65 KCYS 112026 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 226 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very hot temperatures are likely across all of southeast Wyoming and the western Nebraska Panhandle this weekend through early next week. A Heat Advisory has been issued for portions of southeast Wyoming Friday afternoon. - Cooling trend expected next week with increased precipitation chances. Another warm up looks possible for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 220 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024 Already have some radar echoes showing up in southeast Wyoming. Expect this to expand a bit further eastward throughout the afternoon with the slight chance of showers and storms expected east of Interstate 25. As the upper-level high spins around the Great Basin, a weak upper-level disturbance moving over the CWA could spark some scattered convection later this afternoon. Not expecting much in the way of impacts with these storms, but severe gusts of 60 MPH cannot be ruled out with profound inverted-v soundings from the dry low-level. DCAPEs are presumably quite high, up to 1700 J/kg in some locations based on the GFS! Despite the dryness, the panhandle will be able to hold on to some modestly high dewpoints this afternoon, so some rain and perhaps small hail could also be possible in storms. Storm threat could continue into the overnight hours per Hi-Res guidance. Models continue to remain in excellent agreement regarding the upcoming heatwave expected to impact much of the region. The next three days will be some of the hottest of the season thus far, with many locations in the running to break a few records. Over the next several days, the upper-level high over the Great Basin will gradually shift eastward, settling over Colorado by Sunday. This strong 500 mb 598 decameter high will likely lead the hottest temperatures on Sunday, with a gradual roasty warm up until then. 700 mb temperatures will range from +18C to +22C over the next few days, leading to highs ranging from the 90s to areas west of the Laramie Range to potentially exceeding 105 degrees in the Nebraska panhandle. Expect the first widespread 100 degree tomorrow. With forecast record highs for parts of Wyoming Friday afternoon, went ahead and issued a Heat Advisory for Laramie, Goshen, and Platte Counties. Hottest temperatures are expected to be within the North Platte River Valley, where highs could reach 103 degrees. Lower elevations surrounding the North Platte River Valley will likely also see temperatures in excess of 100 degrees, hence the need for a Heat Advisory. Expect slightly cooler temperatures for Laramie County, with highs in excess of 95 degrees, however, the current forecast high for Cheyenne ties the current high temperature record for July 12, hence the need for a Heat Advisory. Expect a likely eastward progression of Heat Advisories into the Nebraska panhandle on Saturday, where temperatures could potentially reach 105 degrees. Aside from the heat, there are daily chances for afternoon storms as upper-level disturbances move through the ridge. Likely not looking at anything severe, but with the dry low-levels and strong inverted- v soundings, cannot rule out a few rouge gusts to 60 MPH. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 220 PM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024 The upper-level ridge that has kept the region hot and dry will slowly begin to breakdown Monday, with zonal flow returning for Tuesday. Several vorticity maxima will traverse through the weakening ridge, leading to enhanced upward motion across the region. Surface and 700mb winds turns southeasterly and bring in additional moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. A trailing cold front associated with a low off to the northeast is progged to push across the region Monday, colliding with the moist, southeasterly flow. With additional rising motion from the vorticity maxima, showers and thunderstorms are favored along this frontal boundary. With precipitable water values well above 1 inch in the Panhandle, any showers and storms that do develop will likely have significant precipitation with them. This could be the first wetting rainfall for much of the region in. Temperatures will still be warm prior to the cold frontal passage, with highs in the upper-80s to upper-90s everywhere, but additional cloud cover from increased moisture may help it feel slightly cooler on Monday. The passing cold front Monday will drop temperatures into the low- 80s to low-90s across the region on Tuesday. With more zonal flow developing for Tuesday, a 700mb shortwave trough will traverse through the flow just to the southeast of the CWA. With counterclockwise flow, additional moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will be advecting into the region Tuesday. A strong vorticity maxima aloft along with a weak cold front will push across the area, leading to increased rising motion once more. With the additional moisture from the developing surface low associated with the 700mb shortwave trough and southeast flow colliding with the weak cold front, showers and thunderstorms will be favored once again. Increased moisture into the region will saturate the column and precipitable water values increase towards the 1.5 inch mark across the Panhandle. With these high PW values, any showers and thunderstorms that develop will have significant rainfall with them, leading to a second day of wetting rainfall across the region. Additional cloud cover will help keep it cooler throughout the day. Temperatures on Wednesday will be cooler than previous days behind the second cold frontal passage and rainfall across the region on Tuesday. Highs will be in the low- to mid-80s area wide. Northwesterly flow aloft develops across the region as an upper- level ridge tries to build across the Desert Southwest. With northwesterly flow, temperatures will remain cooler with increased chances for precipitation across the region. With this cooler, drier flow than previously seen, PW values will decrease across the Panhandle so any showers and thunderstorms should have less precipitation with them. A similar story is expected on Friday as northerly flow develops aloft with a large ridge building across the western CONUS once more. Temperatures on Friday will be similar to Thursday, but looks like the weekend may be another warm one across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1109 AM MDT Thu Jul 11 2024 VFR conditions expected at all terminals this afternoon and evening. Primary aviation concern will be gusty showers and thunderstorms across the region. Showers or storms that develop may produce 50kt winds or greater as they collapse. Included VCTS/VCSH for all TAF sites. Gusty winds will return in the next few hours, with several locations gusting to around 20kts. Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies expected through the afternoon and evening. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM MDT Friday for WYZ107-108-118- 119. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SF LONG TERM...AM AVIATION...AM