Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY
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424 FXUS65 KCYS 051125 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 525 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist over the next several days as a series of weak disturbances impact the region. The potential for measurable precipitation will remain quite low. - A few storms may produce small hail and gusty winds on Saturday afternoon with a brief surge of pacific moisture, but the overall potential for severe storms will remain very low. - Gradual warming trend expected through next week with limited precipitation chances. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 356 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 A stagnant weather pattern will likely persist over the next few days w/ active northwesterly flow aloft on the eastern periphery of high-amplitude ridging over the western US. A series of mid & upper level disturbances should traverse the flow through Sunday resulting in occasional chances for isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, although modest moisture profiles are expected to minimize potential for anything measurable over much of the area. The lack of any substantial moisture return w/ less than ideal boundary layer flow will likely preclude any risk for strong/severe storms, though a push of Pacific moisture may help support mid/upper 40s dew points and CAPEs over 500 J/kg by mid/ late afternoon Saturday which may support some small hail w/ the strongest storms. Best chances for precipitation should be along & east of I25 through the period given the expected storm track. Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal with some continued influence from the broad upper-level trough across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, though a general warming trend is expected through the weekend as the ridge builds eastward. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 356 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The long term remains on track with relatively warm and dry conditions expected next week. Monday marks the start of a gradual warming trend throughout the week as an upper-level trough axis slowly pushes eastward, and eventually off into the Atlantic by mid- week. Further west, a strong upper-level ridge will build over much of western CONUS with a 500 mb high centered over the Great Basin. As the ridge strengthens and slowly pushes eastward throughout the week, warmer and drier 700 mb air will be ushered into the CWA. By Thursday, 700 mb temperatures could be as warm as +18C, leading to the return of above average temperatures for the majority of the CWA. Expect widespread highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s, with even warmer temperatures possible on Friday as 700 mb temperatures exceed +20C. Precipitation chances during this time will be limited with rising heights and very dry air, but they will not be zero. Weak disturbances moving throughout the ridge look possible most days next week. Although they are weak vort maxes, it is possible that they could spark an isolated storm or two over or adjacent to the high terrain. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 524 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Some light scattered showers are possible across the area this morning. Impacts from these showers will be minimal, so expect VFR conditions. Skies will clear later this morning and lead to a mostly sunny afternoon. Occasional diurnal wind gusts up to 25 kts are possible this afternoon. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CLH LONG TERM...SF AVIATION...SF