718
FXUS61 KCTP 070230
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1030 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
* A dry/rain-free first weekend of July continues tomorrow
* Turning hot & humid through early next week; max heat index
  around 100 in parts of south central PA again Monday and
  Tuesday
* Best chance of rain/t-storms next Tuesday PM; wetter pattern
  may setup for later next week as moisture from Beryl
  approaches

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Diurnal cumulus have dissipated this evening with the only low
cloud still evident along the ridgetops in the Laurel Highlands.
Expect clear skies overnight with calm winds as high pressure
and more comfortable dewpoints settle into the region. Dewpoint
depressions across the northwest are already only a few degrees,
so expecting some valley fog to develop there and perhaps as far
south as the Allegheny Front.

A much more comfortable night is in store for all but the urban
areas in our SE zones where lows will likely stay at or just
above 70F. Elsewhere, expect lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Very Warm to hot temps in the low 80s to low 90s are expected
again on Sunday with abundant sunshine, a mix of high-based cu
and cirrus and slightly reduced/lower humidity. Great weather
for outdoor summer activities, but stay hydrated with breaks in
the shade or indoors. The lower humidity will keep heat index
values in check, but actual temperatures will be very similar to
Saturday afternoon.

Min temps Sunday night look similar to tonight with additional
valley fog expected across the northern tier.

Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are possible on
Monday afternoon with easterly/southeasterly flow bringing an
increase of llvl moisture back to central Pennsylvania. Have
kept isolated wording in the forecast as it seems coverage will
be widely scattered/isolated with most places staying rain-free.
Heat index values are likely to approach 100F again on Monday
afternoon in the southeast.

Increasing clouds are likely Monday night as a result of the
combination of wind flow and positive moisture flux. As a
result, lows on Monday night will be a bit milder and in the
65-75F range (+10-15F above climo). Fog possible again in
locations that get rain, but clouds and southeast flow should
limit radiational cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As we move into the middle and end of next week, guidance
depicts a pattern of unsettled weather with southwesterly flow
brining moisture associated with Beryl to the area. There does
remain some uncertainty between model solutions with respect to
multiple disturbances throughout the week. Given a relatively
warm and humid airmass throughout the period, diurnally driven
showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out during the
afternoon and evening hours.

During this pattern, the best chance of showers/storms will be
attributed with surface low pressure moving north of the area
with an associated cold frontal passage Tuesday evening into
Wednesday morning. Surging PWATs ahead of the frontal passage
will provide ample moisture with enough forcing to produce
locally heavy rainfall across eastern PA, outlined with a
Marginal Risk (level 1/4) in the D4 Excessive Rainfall Outlook
from the Weather Prediction Center.

Despite rainfall chances, relatively warm temperatures are
expected throughout the extended period with Tuesday pushing the
highest heat index values this cycle. A brief cool down in the
wake of the cold front is resolved fairly well in model guidance
into Thursday; however, 500mb heights slightly increasing
towards the end of next week and potentially into the weekend,
outlining a slight warming trend towards the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Winds will diminish and skies will clear for the overnight
hours. Patchy fog could develop during the pre-dawn hours, esp
across the valleys of N/W PA, and have maintained a hint of fog
in the BFD TAF. Otherwise, VFR conds should prevail for much of
central PA overnight.

High pressure will provide widespread VFR conditions on Sunday,
with a light westerly wind ~5 kts expected.

Outlook...

Mon...Predominantly VFR w/ no sig wx expected.

Tue-Thu...Scattered mainly afternoon showers/storms and
restrictions possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Banghoff
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Banghoff
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Banghoff
LONG TERM...Evanego/NPB
AVIATION...Evanego