793
FXUS64 KCRP 132324
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
624 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

- Minor to Moderate risk of heat related impacts Sunday.

It is looking like we are getting out of the showery/thunderstorm
pattern of the last few days. The moisture associated with the weak
500 mb trough is moving north, as the 500 mb ridges on either
side of the trough begin to rotate north to join up over North
Texas. The moisture moves north of the Hill Country overnight,
leaving the PWAT values to decrease over the next couple of days.
This morning`s PWAT values was 2.23" on the KCRP sounding, with
the GFS showing the values falling to 1.81" by Sunday morning, and
1.63 by Monday morning. So with precipitation done for a few
days, the next issue is the return of the heat. High temperatures,
with the building ridge look to support temperatures of 90 near
the coast to near 100 in the Rio Grande Plains. Considering that
we have lowering humidity (PWAT values) over the next few days, we
may approach 110F Heat Index values but not expecting to exceed
it Sunday. Sunday night looks quiet.

Haze may be an issue as the Saharan Dust Layer is expected to
increase over the next few days. So the visibility may be impacted.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Not much of a change from the previous Extended forecast package.
The area will remain under the influence of two centers of high
pressure at the mid-levels, one across the SE CONUS and another one
over the Four Corners region. Although a few weaknesses will be able
to swing in between, below normal moisture will maintain rain
chances at minimal through mid week (PoPs <20%).

The pattern aloft then starts to change toward the latter part of
the week when a trough over the Great Lakes region begins to extend
SW into the area. This will send an associated frontal boundary
across the state. Although uncertainty remains fairly high in
regards to this boundary, latest model runs indicate it is likely to
stall either just north of our area or midway across it sometime
Friday into Saturday period. Siding with the NBM for this forecast
package, have continued to bring low to medium rain and thunderstorm
chances (PoPs 20-40%) Friday into Saturday period as well above
normal moisture (PWATs >2.0") will be present.

In terms of the temperature forecast, these will gradually increase
throughout the week with 850mb temperatures warming to around 20-22
degrees Celsius during the afternoon hours each day. In general
though, highs will range from the low 90s along the coast to near
100 over the Brush Country, with overnight lows in the 70s. The risk
of heat related illnesses will be at minor to moderate levels
through most of the week, with some western locations increasing to
major toward the mid to latter part of the week. Heat Advisory
conditions may be met during this time over portions of the southern
Coastal Bend and northern Brush Country. But for now, stay tuned for
the latest updates!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Current look at radar shows most of all shower activity north of
our region with a few showers over southern Duval county.
Expecting shower and thunderstorm activity to continue tapering
off. VFR conditions overnight with some MVFR VSBY`s tomorrow
morning at VCT/ALI due to around a 30-50% chance for fog.
Tomorrow, VFR conditions return late morning and persist with
light southeasterly winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow will remain in place during the
upcoming week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
today, then again the latter part of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  92  78  93 /   0  10   0   0
Victoria          76  92  75  93 /  10  20   0  10
Laredo            76  97  77  97 /  10   0   0   0
Alice             75  95  74  96 /   0  10   0   0
Rockport          81  93  80  92 /   0  10   0   0
Cotulla           76  97  77  99 /  10   0   0   0
Kingsville        76  94  75  95 /   0  10   0   0
Navy Corpus       82  90  82  90 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM....ANM
AVIATION...BF/80