Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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108 FXUS64 KCRP 130849 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 349 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 We remain under the influence of mid and upper level troughing today which will keep rain chances in our forecast. This troughing is locked in between strong high pressure over the Rockies and high pressure over the Southeast US. Within this troughing, a band of vorticity will lift north through the area today and will be the focus for convection. The evolution of convection today is a bit questionable, but expect isolated coverage across the area this morning becoming more scattered as we head through mid-day, and becoming focused more across northern portions of the area for the later afternoon, then a decrease as we lose daytime heating this evening. Once this gets out of here, the southeast US ridge will build into Texas and bring quieter weather for the second half of the weekend. Temperatures today will be a bit higher than yesterday for most of the region, but think the Victoria Crossroads still doesn`t make it much above 90. By Sunday, temperatures will be near normal. Will carry a slight chance for showers in the Victoria Crossroads tomorrow due to some lingering moisture, but will not anticipate much. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Key Messages: - Generally a minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts with a major risk developing across the Brush Country by mid-week. A mid level high pressure system currently centered across the northern Gulf of Mexico and southeastern U.S., is progged to build westward this upcoming week and bring drier mid levels across S TX. This will limit rain chances and lead to a warming trend. Rain chances are very low (<5%) Monday and Tuesday with perhaps a rogue shower along the sea breeze. Moisture increases slightly the latter part of the week with the high pressure shifting slightly eastward, but rain chances remain low (10-30%) with the main forcing being the sea breeze combined with daytime instability. The highest rain chances are expected across the Victoria Crossroads the latter half of the week where instability is progged to be strongest. Models are also indicating a weak frontal boundary stalling just north of the CWA next Friday which would also provide low level convergence across the Victoria area. Main concern for next week continues to be the heat. A gradual warming trend will lead to highs in the lower 90s along the inland coastal areas to around 100 across the Rio Grande Plains Tuesday through next weekend. Humid conditions combined with these higher temperatures will lead to heat indices of 105 to 109 beginning Tuesday. Some locations across the Coastal Bend and Brush Country could briefly see heat indices of 110-114. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 Showers continue across the region late this evening. This activity should taper off in the next couple of hours. After a brief lull in activity, showers will develop early Saturday morning, eventually becoming thunderstorms as we destabilize. Best chances are at ALI/CRP/VCT for convection tomorrow. Convection looks to diminish by 00Z Sunday as drier air moves into the region. Otherwise, a brief period of MVFR conditions will be possible at ALI/COT/LRD/VCT around sunrise Saturday morning. Haze may impact the western terminals during the late morning hours as Saharan dust looks to ride up the Rio Grande. Confidence was too low at this point to add any vis restrictions as a result. && .MARINE... Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024 A weak to moderate onshore flow can be expected for the upcoming week along with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms the latter half of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 91 78 93 77 / 40 0 0 0 Victoria 89 75 92 75 / 50 20 20 0 Laredo 95 76 97 77 / 10 10 0 0 Alice 93 75 96 74 / 40 10 0 0 Rockport 89 82 93 81 / 40 10 10 0 Cotulla 93 77 98 77 / 30 10 0 0 Kingsville 92 77 94 76 / 30 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 90 82 90 81 / 40 10 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PH/83 LONG TERM....TE/81 AVIATION...TC