Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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391 FXUS64 KCRP 042130 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 430 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 405 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Key Message: - Moderate risk of heat-related impacts Friday with heat index values 105-110 - High risk of rip currents likely beginning Friday night with swell periods over 12 seconds We`ll have northeasterly flow aloft with Beryl over the Yucatan Peninsula Friday into Friday night and moisture will be above normal (near 2.0"). However, there won`t be much lift support to initiate any convection and therefore have left very low rain chances at less than 10%. Temperatures will remain very warm tomorrow with highs from the 90s to around 100 over the Brush Country under mostly sunny skies. Heat index values will range from 105-110. Swell periods will increase drastically late Friday night and lead to significant wave runup and dangerous swimming conditions. There will likely be a HIGH risk of rip currents in effect beginning either Friday night or Saturday and continuing through the Holiday Weekend into early next week. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 405 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Key Messages: - All of South Texas interests should make sure their preparedness plans are in order and stay informed regarding Beryl. - Rain chances increase Sunday night and continue into next week. - Hazardous marine conditions continue this weekend into next week The long term will focus on Hurricane Beryl, and the uncertainty with it. As Beryl approaches South Texas, rain chances are expected expected to increase Sunday along with strong winds most likely arriving Sunday night into Monday. However, the time of arrival of winds and rain is still fluid depending on the actual track of Hurricane Beryl and it`s forward speed after is exits the Yucatan Peninsula tomorrow afternoon. As Hurricane Beryl eventually impacts South Texas, we can expect locally heavy rain with current estimated forecast rainfall amounts between 7-9" from the Coastal Plains to the Victoria Crossroads and 3-6" across the Brush Country Saturday night through Wednesday night. Therefore, South Texas is currently under a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall Sunday and Sunday night and a Slight Risk Monday and Monday night. Expect rainfall forecast rainfall amounts and excessive rain outlooks to continue changing in the coming days as we gain better confidence. Another hazard that will be elevated will be out tornado threat. Due to the angle of approach, increase friction will enhance the environmental conditions for tornadoes across the eastern half of the storm. As for marine hazards, they are expected to begin earlier than the arrival of the Hurricane. High risk of rip currents are expected to begin in the short term forecast and continue into this weekend. Apart from rip currents, coastal flooding is expected to impact the barrier islands this weekend due to swell periods of 12-14 seconds and swell heights of 3-4 feet ahead of the storm. Please continue to check back frequently for updates. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with only a very low chance of patchy fog development over the inland Coastal Plains 10-13Z, potentially impacting ALI/VCT. Southeasterly winds of 12-15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots this afternoon will decrease heading into the late evening hours. Kept 6SM haze in the forecast due to smoke from fireworks area the area. && .MARINE... Issued at 405 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Weak to moderate south to southeasterly winds will continue through Sunday morning, gradually increasing throughout the day as Hurricane Beryl approaches. While uncertainty is still high on timing and actual track, elevated seas up to 12 feet occasionally to 15 feet can be expected late this weekend with strong winds as Beryl approaches South Texas. Rain chances will increase Sunday night with high chances of rain hanging around through Tuesday of next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 79 95 77 95 / 0 0 0 10 Victoria 76 96 75 95 / 0 10 0 20 Laredo 77 101 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 76 100 74 99 / 0 0 0 10 Rockport 82 94 81 94 / 0 0 0 20 Cotulla 77 103 77 102 / 0 0 0 10 Kingsville 77 97 76 96 / 0 0 0 10 Navy Corpus 83 92 81 91 / 0 0 0 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EMF/94 LONG TERM....JCP/84 AVIATION...EMF/94