476
FXUS64 KCRP 071116
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
616 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Key Messages:

- All of South Texas interests should continue to monitor the
progress of Beryl

- Rain chances increase Sunday and continue into next week.

- Hurricane Watch, Storm Surge Watch and Tropical Storm Watch are in
effect along the Middle Texas Coast

We are continuing to watch Beryl as it makes its way towards the
middle Texas Coast. The forecast remains on track and the storm is
expected to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico as it enters a more
favorable environment with less shear. The storm will continue its
northwest to north-northwestern track today into Monday. The NHC
is expecting this storm to be a category 1 hurricane with the
mention that rapid intensification is possible close to landfall.
Therefore, we cannot rule out the potential for further
strengthening into a low end category 2 hurricane. Nonetheless,
expected threats will remain the same for our area. For more
information, see the latest hurricane local statement for specific
landfall based impacts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Rain chances will continue to linger through the remainder of the
week. Beryl will continue to track to the north out the area and a
ridge currently over the southwestern US will move to the south and
retrograde back to our area. Simultaneously, a couple of shortwaves
are expected to ride the western periphery of the ridge along with
an influx of tropical moisture. This is expected to allow for some
showers and thunderstorms during the day Wednesday and Thursday.
Expect more diurnally driven convection through the remainder of the
period. With the influx of moisture into the region the threat for
heat stress related impacts returns. Heat indices return to 105-110
by Tuesday and will remain that way through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Conditions are expected to deteriorate throughout the day as rain
bands from TS Beryl move inland across the Coastal Bend and
Victoria Crossroads. Beryl is forecast to strengthen to a
hurricane late tonight as it moves northwest to north. Based on
Beryl`s latest forecast track, the main impacts will be at CRP
and VCT TAF sites with a mix of MVFR and IFR conditions. ALI is
expected to be less impacted, but still some convection and gusty
northeast to north winds by late afternoon or evening and
continuing overnight. CRP`s winds are expected to increase late
this afternoon with gusts 30-35 knots by the evening. VCT is
expected to gust to 40-45 knots, possibly higher overnight. COT
and LRD are expected to be rain free with VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 411 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Conditions will begin to deteriorate this morning from east to
west in the area ahead of Tropical Storm Beryl. Winds will
rapidly increase today into tonight. Hurricane conditions are
expected tonight into early Monday with wave heights up to 22-27
feet. Gradually improving conditions can be expected by mid- week.
Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms Sunday through
Monday, with scattered thunderstorms lingering through the end of
the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    93  79  95  78 /  50  50  60  30
Victoria          91  76  88  74 /  50  70  80  40
Laredo           101  80 102  80 /  10  10  20  10
Alice             96  78  98  76 /  30  30  50  20
Rockport          93  80  93  79 /  60  70  70  40
Cotulla          102  80 102  79 /  10   0  20  10
Kingsville        96  79  98  78 /  40  30  50  20
Navy Corpus       90  80  93  81 /  60  70  70  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Hurricane Warning for TXZ234-245>247-342>347-442-443-447.

     Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ232-233-242>244.

     Flood Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for TXZ233-
     234-245>247-346-347-447.

     Storm Surge Warning for TXZ245-343>347-443-447.

     Storm Surge Watch for TXZ342-442.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...Hurricane Warning for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM....NP
AVIATION...TE/81