961
FXUS64 KCRP 072258
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
558 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 431 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Key Messages:

- All of South Texas interests should continue to monitor the
progress of Beryl

- Rain chances increase Sunday and continue into next week.

- Hurricane Warnings, Storm Surge Warnings and Tropical Storm
  Warnings are in effect along the Middle Texas Coast

Beryl is the main concern for tonight and into Monday as the storm
moves north through the Gulf to near Matagorda Bay early Monday
morning. Beryl has been slowly deepening this afternoon and is
still expected to increase to category 1 hurricane overnight, and
rapid intensification is still possible before landfall. Therefore
we still cannot rule out the strengthening into a low end category
2 hurricane. Dry air remains present in the inner core of the storm,
keeping intensification on the slower side at this time. However, the
environment should become more favorable for significant
intensification to a occur before landfall overnight into Monday
morning. The official NHC guidance has only shifted slightly east, with
confidence increasing on a landfall over the Mid to Upper Texas coast,
focusing around Matagorda Bay.

Outer rainbands associated with Beryl have continued to slowly move
into the Middle Texas Coast and Coastal Bend, causing local conditions
to deteriorate throughout the day. Hurricane Warning areas remain
unchanged, and Storm Surge Warnings remain in effect along the islands
and coastal portions from Padre Island National Seashore to Sabine
Pass, TX, including Corpus Christi Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston
Bay. Tropical Storm Warnings are also in effect for the Coastal Plains
including inland Kleberg, inland Nueces, inland San Patricio, Bee, and
Goliad Counties. There are also several additional hazardous impacts
across the region.

The storm conditions will diminish on Monday as Beryl moves from
the Texas Gulf Coast to southeast Texas and East Texas by Monday
evening. Monday night looks to be quiet as high pressure briefly
builds into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 431 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Tuesday, the moisture still remain over the region, but any
precipitation doesn`t look like would happen until overnight
Tuesday (Brush Country) or Wednesday over the forecast area with
showers and thunderstorms from sfc trough and 500 mb trough moving
through South Texas. The sfc trough continues over the region
Thursday allowing for more scattered showers and thunderstorms.
This pattern with the stalled sfc trough over the region allows
for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR conditions are currently prevailing across all terminals.
However, that will quickly change for CRP/VCT as rainbands from
Beryl spread inland this evening. Strong winds, heavy rain, and
reduced visibilities are likely with any band that move through.
Winds will gradually increase at CRP/VCT this evening into
tonight. While chances are diminishing at CRP, we could still see
a few gusts to tropical storm strength. VCT has greater chance
for hurricane force conditions tonight. Conditions will improve
through the day tomorrow as Beryl moves off to the north. Shower
and storm activity will diminish at VCT around mid day. Currently
only have a mention of VCTS at ALI as the greatest impacts look to
stay east of the terminal. A southerly flow returns late in this
TAF cycle.

COT/LRD - VFR conditions and winds less than 12 knots prevail
through this TAF cycle.
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 431 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Tropical storm Beryl continues to produce tropical storm
conditions over the waters. The storm is slowly deepening, so winds
are expected increase this evening into tonight. Hurricane
conditions are expected tonight into early Monday with wave
heights up to 17 to 22 feet. Gradually improving conditions can
be expected by mid-week. Expect widespread showers and
thunderstorms through Monday, with scattered thunderstorms
lingering through the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  97  79  94 /  40  40  10  20
Victoria          76  90  74  92 /  90  70  20  40
Laredo            79 103  80 101 /  10  10  10  10
Alice             78 100  77  98 /  10  30  10  20
Rockport          79  94  80  93 /  70  60  20  20
Cotulla           78 103  80  99 /   0  10  10  20
Kingsville        78 100  78  97 /  20  30  10  20
Navy Corpus       80  93  81  91 /  60  40  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Hurricane Warning for TXZ234-245>247-342>347-442-443-447.

     Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ232-233-242>244.

     Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Monday through Monday evening for
     TXZ233-234-245>247-346-347-447.

     Storm Surge Warning for TXZ245-343>347-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...Hurricane Warning for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL
LONG TERM....JSL
AVIATION...TC/95