690
FXUS61 KCLE 201015
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
615 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in place through Sunday. Southwest flow aloft
becomes more active after Monday. Cold front will track through
the region Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
615 AM Update...
No major changes this morning. Another quiet early morning
period.

Previous Discussion...
Sig wx nil. Column remains dry, although forecast soundings show a
better chance of flat cumulus formation at the top of the
boundary layer, but with no vertical extent due to the steep RH
drop off and the inversion. Position of the surface high over
Lake Erie continues to lend to a light onshore/northerly flow,
and despite airmass modification from insolation the past couple
of days, temperatures only climb a few more degrees into the
lower 80s for the most part. Minimal movement of the surface
high pressure system for Sunday, but again, will see
temperatures nudge upwards again with lower to mid 80s for the
CWA. Forecast remains dry through the near term forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Quiet weather will come to an end as surface high pressure weakens
and moves toward the East Coast as we begin next week. Broad
southerly flow takes shape as an upper level trough remains draped
across the Central US. This will allow for increased moisture to
advect into the region through the short term. Precipitation chances
will increase Monday afternoon and evening as a shortwave aloft
moves overhead, though low to mid level moisture remains minimal
which will inhibit shower and storm coverage. Better chance for
showers will come overnight Monday into the day Tuesday as
additional moisture and better jet energy come together. Near normal
overnight lows in the mid 60s with seasonable high temperatures in
the mid 80s each afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
More active weather will continue into the long term period with
multiple chances for showers and storms through the end of the week.
Aforementioned upper level trough will gradually dig eastward toward
the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region through the period with
embedded shortwaves moving overhead. Better potential for widespread
showers and storms will come Tuesday through Thursday with locally
heavy rainfall possible given a very saturated column with PWATs
approaching the 90th percentile. Surface low pressure and
accompanying cold front will cross in the vicinity of Lake Erie
Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure builds in behind the cold
front late in the forecast period bringing drier weather to the
region to end the week and begin the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR. High pressure in control of the region. Have added SCT050
during peak heating to all terminals except FEW050 for ERI given
the flat cumulus field expected to develop, but no ceilings for
this issuance. Winds less than 8kts out of the NW/N today.

Outlook...VFR expected through Monday morning. Isolated to
scattered showers/thunderstorms with non-VFR possible Tuesday
through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet marine conditions on Lake Erie will continue through the
weekend as high pressure remains overhead. This will allow for winds
to remain light, 10 knots or less, and variable through early next
week. Winds will generally remain onshore each afternoon and early
evening as a lake breeze develops each day.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...Iverson
LONG TERM...Iverson
AVIATION...26
MARINE...Iverson