028
FXUS61 KCLE 262024
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
424 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will lift north tonight as low pressure
tracks east across the Upper Midwest. This low will extend a
cold front southeast across the area late Friday into Saturday.
The boundary will lift north as a warm front Sunday night
before the next cold front crosses the region Monday evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms continue to expand in coverage late this
afternoon. ML CAPE values are in the 1500-2500 J/kg range and
activity is expected to continue to fill in, especially across NW
and North Central Ohio. Fortunately there is little shear to work
with today but DCAPE remains at or above 900 J/kg. In additions
thunderstorms will produce heavy rain with rates of 2-4" per hour.
The main concern for localized flooding will be if storms start to
train over a particular area and overwhelm drainage system. Activity
this evening is being forced by some weak shortwave energy moving
around the ridge along with a minimal increase in mid-level
moisture. Also from colliding outflow boundaries. Activity is
expected to wane after sunset.

Low pressure moving into southern Minnesota this evening will track
northeast across the Upper Great Lakes on Friday. During the early
part of the day, deeper moisture will be in place across  NE Ohio/NW
Pennsylvania as the upper ridge shifts eastward and expect activity
to fire in this region first. In addition, the cold front associated
with the above mentioned area of low pressure will move into NW Ohio
after 6 PM, then gradually sag southeast across Lake Erie through
the overnight hours. Far eastern and western portions of the area
are highlighted in a marginal risk of severe weather which seems
appropriate given continued moderate instability values of 2000+
J/kg. Sheer will be slightly higher than the previous couple days
but mid-levels will be a little more moist, so microbursts may be a
little harder to come by. Will need to monitor thunderstorm activity
again during the afternoon and evening on Friday, including the
potential for some training of storms along the front. Precipitable
water values will be near 2 inches and storm motion is likely to be
be parallel to the front which could support training. Before the
activity fills in on Friday, hot and muggy conditions are expected
once again. Heat index values will be in the upper 90s across much
of northern Ohio and could possibly hit 100 before the storms
arrive, especially near Lake Erie where dewpoints may be a degree or
two higher. It is not out of the question that a Heat Advisory could
be issued but with thunderstorms developing during the afternoon
will likely be able to hold off on that.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough crosses the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday and
a frontal boundary slowly settles southward across east central
Ohio. This moist axis will begin in our southeastern counties
on Saturday morning with shower activity either ongoing or
developing with some heating. Depending on the timing of the
front, we may have some minimal instability in our southeastern
counties to enhance showers and support scattered thunderstorms.
Heavy rainfall will still be possible on Saturday in the south
until the heavier precipitation is out of the area. Temperatures
behind the front will drop back into the 80-85 range but
unfortunately we do not really scour out the low level moisture.
Dewpoints remain in the upper 60s to near 70 Saturday. High
pressure builds southeast across Lake Erie on Sunday and we do
finally mix the dewpoints down a couple degrees into the mid and
upper 60s. Sunday does look to be dry with a strong capping
inversion near 850mb. Removed any lingering pops from the
forecast except for just an isolated mention from about Marion
to Mount Vernon. Light southwest winds will resume on Sunday and
temperatures and temperatures will already start to recover
with highs back up around 90 along the I-75 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The ridge shifts off the East Coast to start the long term with a
more pronounced trough digging southeast out of Canada. A warm front
lifts back north Sunday into Monday ahead of this trough with shower
and thunderstorm activity filling in ahead of the cold front Monday
afternoon and evening. It seems unlikely activity lingers into
Tuesday but have a low pop in our southeastern counties for Tuesday.
This front finally ushers in a better airmass with humidity dropping
off for the middle of next week. Temperatures remain seasonable
in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Similar pattern as the past few days continue with the potential for
diurnal showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening
from 18Z to 00Z. Location will generally be along the frontal
boundary that is draped across Northern Ohio with higher
confidence near KTOL, KCLE, and KYNG given current placement and
progression of thunderstorms. There is lower confidence in
thunderstorms near KCAK, KMFD, and KFDY so opted to continue
with the PROB30 group and VCTS and no thunderstorms are
expected at KERI. Within thunderstorms, non-VFR visibility can
be expected along with gusty downdrafts. Thunderstorms will be
generally moving in easterly direction throughout the afternoon,
though will be moving slowly. Winds will generally be light
outside of the thunderstorms, staying less than 10 knots out of
a northerly direction.

Towards the end of and after the TAF period, a cold front will be
approaching from the west moving east. Winds will increase to around
10 knots with the potential for gusts from 15-20 knots, mainly for
the western terminals. There is also the potential for thunderstorms
at the end of the TAF period for KCLE, but opted to omit it due
to low confidence in timing and coverage.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions expected with afternoon/evening
thunderstorms and showers through the weekend with Sunday being the
highest confidence in VFR conditions. Non-VFR conditions
expected to start next week through Tuesday with an approaching
low pressure system.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds continue in a similar pattern as previous days, a generally
light, northerly winds and onshore flow will continue this afternoon
into the early evening as winds will become more easterly overnight
into Friday morning. A low pressure system will approach from the
west and winds will veer to be out of the south at 10 knots and then
shift to be southwesterly at 10-15 knots Friday night into Saturday
as a cold front moves across the lake. Waves will stay 2 feet or
less through Friday night and build to 3 feet after the cold front
passes on Saturday. High pressure will build in briefly on Sunday
and winds will be around 5 knots across the lake with waves less
than 2 feet. Ahead of the next cold front winds will be
predominately out of the south at 10 knots then veer to be
westerly behind the front by Tuesday with waves building back
up to 2-3 feet.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...10
NEAR TERM...10
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23