403
FXUS62 KCHS 081650
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1250 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will remain over inland areas this week while
high pressure persists over the western Atlantic.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This Afternoon: WPC has analyzed a decaying stationary front
just inland of the local forecast area. Showers and a few
thunderstorms have developed roughly along and east of I-95 in
SC and across southeast GA. These showers and storms are
forecast to persist into the afternoon as the sea breeze pushes
inland and mesoscale boundaries interact. SPC Mesoanalysis shows
a large area of PWATs of 2.4 inches across southeast SC and
southeast GA. Plentiful cloud cover will help to keep
temperatures a degree or two cooler than previous days, with
highs generally reaching into the low 90s. Heat Index values
are roughly 98-103 across the region, as dew points mix out
slightly and remain in the mid 70s.

Evening: Showers and thunderstorms will be on-going across the
coastal counties with the highest coverage likely being across
southeast Georgia. A slow decrease in coverage is expected as
evening progresses. Expect low temperatures mostly in the mid
70s to near 80 degrees at area beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper ridge over the central and northern Atlantic will
expand west into the local area Tuesday through Thursday.
Meanwhile, a weak surface trough will linger across inland
areas Tuesday and Wednesday, then shift east on Thursday. Deep
tropical moisture will persist Tuesday and Wednesday with PWATs
above 2.2". On Thursday some drier air is expected to move into
eastern GA, leaving the deepest moisture over southern SC. A
progressive sea breeze is expected to develop each day, pushing
well inland by mid/late afternoon. The greatest convection
coverage is expected to again be across far inland areas
Tuesday and Wednesday, closer to the lee trough and where upper
heights are lower. On Thursday the best coverage could flip to
the other side of the forecast area due to the drier air moving
into southeast GA and better moisture convergence over southern
SC. Throughout the Day 2-4 period we have continued to undercut
model PoPs due to the notable wet bias we have been noticing.

High temperatures all three days are expected to be in the lower
90s. We`re currently showing the highest dewpoints across the
eastern portion of the area Tuesday and Wednesday where we have
a corridor of 105-110F heat indices. We may need Heat Advisories
for part of the area one or both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The upper ridge will gradually expand over the area late week
into the weekend with Atlantic surface high pressure also
building in. Although subtle upper shortwaves could pass
through at any time, the sea breeze will be the primary forcing
for convection. We capped PoPs at 40-50% each afternoon.
Afternoon heat indices will top out around 105F most days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Showers and thunderstorms will impact the
terminals this afternoon, bringing brief flight restrictions.
The 18Z TAFs will feature a TEMPO group at each terminal through
roughly 21Z. Precipitation will diminish this evening, with the
remainder of the 18Z TAF period VFR.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms may produce brief flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Seas of 2 to 3 ft with winds mainly out of the south 5 to 10
kt, with some higher gusts near the coast with the sea breeze.
Winds will then slowly decrease this evening as the sea breeze
circulation relaxes.

Tuesday through Saturday will feature typical summertime
conditions with 10-15 kt southerly winds and seas 2-4 ft.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CPM/Haines
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...CPM/JRL
MARINE...Haines/JRL