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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
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405 FXUS62 KCHS 070542 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 142 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front will remain stalled near the area through much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Showers and thunderstorms from Saturday afternoon/ evening have continued to rapidly decay early this morning as they approach the drier air to the east. Warm and humid conditions will persist this morning with lows ranging from the mid 70s well inland to the lower 80s at the beaches and Downtown Charleston. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon with high temperatures in the low 90s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... A mid-level ridge present over the forecast area on Sunday will slowly begin to weaken into Tuesday with shortwaves rippling across the southeastern states. At the surface a weak front will linger in the vicinity. The weakening ridge aloft will yield temperatures in the low 90s through the short term period. With dew points in the low to mid 70s heat indices will likely only reach up to 103, shy of Heat Advisory criteria. With the lingering front in the vicinity significant moisture will be available, with PWATs upwards of 2.3- 2.4 inches, which would be close to the maximum PWAT according to SPC Climatology. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon, with the threat of heavy rainfall as PWATs remain elevated. The best coverage for precipitation will be across SE GA, closer to the stalled front and higher PWAT values. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The ridging aloft will continue to weaken through the end of the week, with additional shortwaves rippling across the southeastern states. Deep moisture will remain in place, with PWATs well above 2 inches. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon, mostly driven by a robust afternoon sea breeze. The current forecast has high temperatures in the low to mid 90s through the week, resulting in heat index values between 100 and 106. Heat Advisories later in the week cannot be ruled out, however at this juncture the forecast keeps conditions below the 108 criteria. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... This morning: Showers and thunderstorms from Saturday evening have continued to rapidly decay as they approach KSAV this morning. This is thanks to stubborn mid-level dry air over KSAV to KCHS/ KJZI (observed on the ALPW product). Expect winds to be mostly light and out of the south this morning with VFR cloud cover. Today: The mid-level dry slot that was noted above will begin to be pushed south which should allow for better coverage of thunderstorms at the TAF sites this afternoon. Highest confidence of observing a thunderstorm will be at KSAV which will firmly be in the moist/ high PWAT air (2.4"). Confidence is lower at KCHS and KJZI. For now, have introduced thunder at KSAV and left the mention out at the Charleston terminals. This might have to be included in future TAF packages. Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms will persist into the evening hours once again and slowly come to an end by early Monday morning. Mostly VFR conditions are forecast. Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions possible in showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon and early evening. && .MARINE... Tonight: Southerly winds 10-15 kt with seas 2-3 ft will prevail. Sunday through Thursday: Generally tranquil conditions expected across the local marine waters through the period. Winds will average 15 knots or less with seas 2 to 3 ft. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Haines SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...Haines MARINE...