905
FXUS61 KCAR 061358
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
958 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remained stalled across the north today.
A weak cold front will begin to cross the region Sunday and move
east of the region Monday. A weak surface boundary approaches from
the north Tuesday with a cold front crossing the area Wednesday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
950 am update...
Adjusted PoPs and thunderstorm coverage for the North Woods and
northeastern Aroostook County for this morning into early
afternoon. Issued Flood Advisory for heavy rains falling and
included mention of locally heavy rain in northern Aroostook.

The next concern will be if the inversion breaks enough for
surface-based instability in southern Piscataquis and Penobscot
counties later this afternoon into early evening. Shear at 0-1,
0-3 and 0-6 km are all at very favorable readings in those
areas. Dew points will likely be in the lower 70s. LCLs will be
low. The latest outlook from SPC for marginal risk just grazes
this area. Main concern is winds, but some parameters point to
potential for rotating storms. SBCAPE of just 500 to 1000 J/kg
could be troublesome for southern Piscataquis and Penobscot
counties.

Prev discussion blo...
Stationary boundary remains acrs nrn CWA this morning with weak
sfc low located over eastern NY. This is keeping CWA in a warm
and humid airmass with patchy to areas of fog commonplace
tonight. Area of showers, along with an isolated tstm, is
lifting over the waters with elevated convection likely. Showers
will become increasingly likely acrs the area this morning and
into this afternoon with a combination of diurnal heating and in
favorable region of upr level jet. Elevated instability looks to
be present over most of the area today with isolated thunder
fcst this afternoon and this evening.

Given low clouds and fog this morning, not expecting much in the
way of temp rise with lwr 70s acrs the north and m70s over the
Central Highlands tda. Upr 60s expected over Downeast with areas
along the immediate shoreline stuck in the 60s.

For tonight expected showers will begin to wane fm west to east
as front pushes through the region. Patchy fog expected over the
region late this evening and through the overnight with min
temps remaining in the lwr to middle 60s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Warm and muggy air mass remains in place through the short
term. Strong upper level ridge remains along the eastern
seaboard with west to southwest flow aloft persisting. A weak
boundary will still be bisecting the region during Sunday as
weak short wave crosses the crown of Maine. Thus, expect the
chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly to the north of the
Katahdin region Sunday afternoon. Afternoon highs will range
from the lower 80s north to the mid 80s for the Bangor region
and interior Downeast. Expect cooler along the coast. The short
wave exits Sunday evening as the boundary sinks slowly south to
the coast. Any early evening showers across northern areas will
end early in the evening and give way to mainly clear to partly
cloudy skies Sunday night. Lows fall into the low to mid 60s
Sunday night. Patchy fog is expected as well. The upper ridge
will persist Monday and Monday night. Expect very warm and muggy
conditions on Monday with highs climbing into the mid to upper
80s away from the coast. Dew points in the mid to upper 60s will
make it feel quite uncomfortable during Monday. Despite the
very warm and muggy conditions, warming aloft will likley cap
any thunderstorm development Monday afternoon. Warm and muggy
conditions are expected Monday night. Lows will only fall into
the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tuesday is another very warm and humid day with highs inland
climbing well into the 80s to perhaps the 90 degree mark in a few
spots. An approaching upper trof and surface cold front from the
west could result in an afternoon shower or thunderstorm later
Tuesday. Unsettled conditions with the chance for showers and
thunderstorms continues Tuesday night through Wednesday. Somewhat
drier and cooler air is expected behind the front later Wednesday
night and Thursday. Another system brings the chance for my
showers late week. Afternoon highs mid to late week will
average a bit above seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR expected most of the day with cigs and
patchy fog over terminals. Showers and storms difficult to time
and may be able to narrow down timing with later forecasts.
Winds fairly light out of the ese today.

SHORT TERM:

Sun...IFR in low clouds/patchy fog early then becoming VFR.

Sun night...IFR in low clouds/patchy fog.

Mon...IFR early, then VFR.

Mon night...VFR, except possible IFR vicinity KBHB.

Tue...VFR.

Tue night and Wed...MVFR or lower.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Southerly winds increase this morning but stable
airmass will keep gusts around 20kts through the period. Seas
will increase to near 5ft on the far outer reaches of the waters
this evening but small craft conditions will be very marginal
with no headlines anticipated. Visibilities will be reduced
below one miles at time this morning and tonight in fog.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will generally remain below SCA levels
through mid week. Patchy fog may reduce visibility to 1 to 3 NM
at times.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster/MCW
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...Buster/MCW/TWD
Marine...Buster/MCW/TWD