085
FXUS61 KCAR 052203
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
603 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remained stalled across the area this
evening. The front then slowly lifts back north Saturday in the
form of a warm front. A weak cold front will begin to cross the
region Sunday and move east of the region Monday. Low pressure
approaches from the west Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
6:03 PM Update: Showers with embedded isolated thunderstorms
extend across southern Piscataquis County and central Penobscot
County. The activity has diminished quite a bit in intensity
during the past 90 minutes, but still getting a few lightning
strikes and heavy downpours. The activity should continue to
weaken this evening with the loss of daytime heating along with
the march north of the marine layer. Made some minor adjustments
to the PoPs and weather grids for the next few hours based on
the latest radar, lightning, and satellite trends. The main
story later tonight and Saturday morning will be the low clouds
and fog, and whether the fog becomes dense, especially Downeast.

Previous discussion:
The warm front will continue to move northward through the
region tonight. Thunderstorm activity will decrease by sunset
with the lose of daytime heating and lift with the front. In
addition, S flow will help stabilize the area. After midnight,
high-res models show the front stalling over the North Woods and
central Aroostook with light rain showers continuing over this
area. The main concern tonight will be the areas of fog with the
onshore flow, moist atmosphere, steep inversion, and warmer
temps. Downeast could see some dense fog tonight and early
Saturday morning.

By Saturday, the low pressure system over the Great Lakes will
move along the upper level trof through the morning. Rain
showers will continue with the progression of the system. Models
are in better agreement with the heavier rainfall staying to the
north in the afternoon as the center of the low pressure system
moves over the state. Upper air model soundings indicate
instability in the north as well, which will increase the
chances of localized heavy rain with isolated thunderstorms.
However, CAMS have decreasing confidence in the heaviest rain in
the north, so left out enhanced wording in the forecast. Cooler
temps on Saturday with the warm front sinking south and S flow
decreasing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expect showers and thunderstorms to gradually exit the area by
later in the night. Any thunderstorm activity will likely be
elevated as a veneer of low clouds and fog will likely cover the
area Saturday night into Sunday morning. High PWs and deep
moisture means some showers/thunderstorms could produce locally
higher amounts of rainfall, but models have little consensus on
precip amounts or placement for Saturday night. Weak surface low
moves across the Crown of Maine during the night and will drag a
very weak cold front across the area into Sunday. Have
maintained chance PoPs for showers and a slight chance of
afternoon thunderstorms, but expect a cap will limit instability
and development of any stronger showers.

The large subtropical high off the Eastern Seaboard builds into
the area Sunday and Monday with increasing stability and
continued heat/humidity. Highs on Sunday will be in the low to
mid 80s with heat indices up to around 90F but falling short of
Heat Advisory criteria. Temperatures increase Monday into the
mid to upper 80s. Once again, expect heat indices to fall shy of
advisory criteria, but it will certainly be uncomfortable by
northern/eastern Maine standards. Nighttime temperatures will
offer little relief with lows in the mid 60s for much of the
forecast area. The humid air will promote another night with
areas of fog for Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Another warm and muggy night is forecast for Monday night.
Tuesday may be the warmest day of the week with highs in the
upper 80s to around 90F. A weak cold front sags southward
towards the area Tuesday afternoon and will likely spark
thunderstorm activity. An upper trough swinging southeastward
out of the Great Lakes region moves into the region Tuesday
night into early Wednesday. Enhanced lift along the frontal
boundary could generate heavier showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Deeper tropical moisture from the
remnants of Beryl may be pulled northward along the boundary
during the period. The upper trough and frontal boundary shift
southward enough by Wednesday night into Friday to bring drier
weather and nominally cooler temperatures/humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
FVE/CAR/PQI...VFR conditions early tonight, then decreasing to
IFR/LIFR after midnight in low cigs and rain showers. Light and
variable winds. For Saturday, IFR/LIFR in the morning, then MVFR
by the afternoon due to rain showers. SSE winds around 5 kts.

HUL/BGR/BHB...MVFR this evening, then a sharp decrease to
IFR/LIFR after sunset in low cigs/vsby due to rain showers and
patchy to areas of fog. Light and variable winds. For Saturday,
IFR/LIFR conditions all day in showers and low cigs. SSE winds
around 5 kts.

SHORT TERM:
Saturday night...IFR to LIFR in fog and low clouds. Embedded
thunderstorms are possible.

Sunday...Low clouds and fog will burn off and all sites will be
VFR by afternoon. There is a slight chance of a thunderstorm in
the afternoon, but chances are trending down.

Sunday night...Another night of IFR to LIFR in fog/low clouds.

Monday...Early morning fog burns off, giving way to VFR
conditions by mid-morning.

Monday night...Fog is most likely for BHB, most likely VFR
inland.

Tuesday...Generally VFR with a chance of afternoon
thunderstorms.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...Becoming IFR due to low clouds.
Chance of thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain below SCA conditions tonight
and Saturday. Reduced visibilities in areas of fog.


SHORT TERM:
Thunderstorms are possible Saturday night and again Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Fog will be prevalent throughout the
period in the very humid air mass.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...CB/LaFlash
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...CB/LaFlash/MCW
Marine...CB/LaFlash/MCW