256
FXUS61 KCAR 080811
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
411 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the west today. A weak surface
trough approaches from the north Tuesday night. Low pressure
then approaches from the west Wednesday through the end of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Current sfc analysis has boundary still lingering over Downeast
zones early this morning. Areas of fog visible over the waters per
latest nighttime microphysics satellite with coastal areas dropping
in fog. To the north of the boundary is patchy radiational fog
developing with lowest visibilities being found where significant
rain has fallen the past 1-2 days. Other than a few high cirrus
streaming through skies are mainly clear tonight with calm winds.

H5 ridge peaks over the CWA this morning with very slowly dropping
heights this afternoon. Given the boundary still lurking over
central areas and lowering heights cannot rule out an isolated
shower developing in the afternoon and evening hours.

High temps will be warmer than Sunday with sunny skies this morning
giving way to mid-high clouds over the north and mostly sunny skies
in the south. Marine layer looks to make another run over Downeast
late tonight with radiational fog occurring once again across the
north under stagnant airmass.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Another very warm and humid day expected on Tuesday with continued
west to southwest flow in place. Afternoon highs on Tuesday will
once again climb into the mid to upper 80s away from the coast. An
approaching mid/upper level disturbance and weak cold front
approaching from Quebec province sets the stage for the
possibility of a few afternoon thunderstorms. 0 to 6 km shear
values around 40 to 45 kt could help support any storm that do
develop. PWAT values increase to greater than 1.5", with
potential for some heavy downpours with any storms. Will not
include any enhanced wording at this time as confidence not
quite there, but something next shift may have to consider. Any
afternoon convection should quickly wind down by early Tuesday
evening with the passage of a weak cold front later Tuesday
night. Lows Tuesday night will be in the low to mid 60s. The
front stalls just offshore later Tuesday night and early
Wednesday with a break expected and just the chance of a shower.
Afternoon highs on Wednesday will be just a tad cooler in the
low to mid 80s, but it will remain on the muggy side.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure and remnant tropical moisture from Beryl then
approaches later Wednesday night and Thursday. Still uncertainty in
where the heaviest rainfall ultimately sets up. This system does
have the potential to bring locally heavy rainfall to parts of the
region Wednesday night through Thursday. Will have to watch for
the potential of localized flooding with any heavier rainfall. Once
this system finally exits late week we should see a break in
the showers. It is expected to remain rather warm and humid
through much of the long term. Afternoon highs are expected to
be near normal on Thursday and then in the low to mid 80s Friday
through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Expecting IFR/LIFR vsbys to develop overnight, with
CAR likely to see VLIFR due to heavy rainfall Sunday. Cannot
rule out LIFR at BHB with marine layer advancing north but
little confidence at terminals elsewhere. VFR should be the
rule after 11z this morning.

SHORT TERM:

Tue and Tue night...Localized IFR early in patchy fog,
otherwise VFR. Possible MVFR in any afternoon thunderstorms. SW
winds 15 kts becoming W wind 5 to 10 kts.

Wed...VFR. Light winds.

Wed night through Fri...MVFR with possible in showers and
thunderstorms. Light winds becoming SW 10 to 15kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below small craft levels
today and tonight. Visibilities will remain below one mile
through tonight as warm humid air remains over the cold waters.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will generally remain below SCA levels
through id week. Visibility will be reduced to 1 to 3 NM in
late night/early morning fog.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...Buster/TWD
Marine...Buster/TWD