411
FXUS61 KCAR 111304
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
904 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure and remnant moisture from Beryl will cross the
region tonight into Friday. A series of troughs will cross the
area Friday through Saturday night. High pressure will cross
the region Sunday. A cold front will begin to approach later
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
905AM Update...Rain continues across the region with flooding
reports across the area. No major changes to the forecast for
this update.

previous discussion
A weak area of low pressure will cross the region through tonight.
Meanwhile, high pressure will remain across the western Atlantic.
Expect mainly cloudy skies today along with scattered to numerous
showers. An isolated thunderstorm will still be possible. It will
remain muggy again today, but it will not be as warm as the
past few days, with abundant cloud cover expected. Afternoon
highs today will generally be in the mid to upper 70s.

Expect mainly cloudy skies tonight with scattered showers this
evening. Abundant low level moisture will remain in place across the
region, thus patchy to areas of fog are expected. Lows tonight will
generally be in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Unsettled weather will continue through the weekend as
successive shortwaves rotate through the pattern. The first of
these will be during the day on Friday, bringing showers mainly
to the northern portion of the forecast area. The second trough
will then move through on Saturday, but this will trigger
showers across the southern portion of the region. During this
period, southwesterly flow will continue and conditions will
remain warm and humid overall. Patchy fog is possible overnight
both nights, especially in areas closer to the coast.
Temperatures will return to the mid-80s by Saturday, and with
dewpoints in the mid-60s to near 70 in the south, it will still
feel quite muggy.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday provides a break in the showers as shortwave ridging
moves overhead. However, southwest flow will continue and
temperatures will climb to the upper 80s for both Sunday and
Monday, with heat indices near 90. Heat advisories may need to
be considered as we get closer in time. Instability will
increase on Monday with the warm, humid air mass, and showers
and a chance of thunderstorms will spread across the region. A
cold front will approach from the west early next week,
providing some relief from the muggy conditions. However, there
is a tremendous amount of difference in timing between the
models, with some models bringing cooler air through as early as
Tuesday, while others do not have it approaching until
Wednesday afternoon. Therefore, continued with NBM blend for the
end of the forecast period, with a slight nudge to warmer
temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday to account for possible
slowing of the front.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly MVFR/IFR conditions are expected at the terminals
through tonight. E to NE wind at 5 to 10 kt can be expected at
the northern terminals, with S to SE wind at 5 to 10 kt
expected at KBGR/KBHB.

SHORT TERM:

Friday...Variable conditions with any early fog.
Otherwise, VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers north. Southwest/west
winds 10 to 15 knots.

Friday night...Variable conditions with any fog. Otherwise, VFR.
Slight chance of an early shower. West/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday...Variable conditions with any fog early. Otherwise,
generally VFR. Occasional MVFR in showers Downeast. West/southwest
winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday night...VFR. West/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday through Sunday night...VFR. West/southwest winds 5 to 10
knots.

Monday...VFR early, then VFR/MVFR with a chance of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. Southwest/south winds 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the outer waters
for today through Friday. Expect gusts to around 25 kts and
seas ranging from 4 to 6 ft. Visibility will be reduced to 1 NM
or less in fog early this morning and again tonight,

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions will continue into
Friday evening due to seas above 5 feet. Seas will subside and
winds will decrease Friday night and remain quiet through
Monday. Fog may reduce visibility below 1 mile Thursday night
into Saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for MEZ003>006-010-
     011-031-032.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD/LaFlash
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...TWD/LaFlash/LF
Marine...TWD/LaFlash/LF