170
FXUS61 KCAR 281927
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
327 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure will cross the region tonight. Weak high
pressure will build toward the region later Sunday and remain
through Monday. A cold front will cross the region later Tuesday
and Tuesday night. Another cold front will cross the region
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Weak low pressure moving east tonight will result in showers and
isolated thunderstorms this evening. The low will weaken as it
pushes east later tonight wih showers and isolated thunderstorms
diminishing after midnight. Patchy fog is also expected. Lows
tonight will mainly be in the low to mid 50s across the region.
West to northwest flow aloft is expected during Sunday. Mainly
cloudy skies can be expected Sunday with just some widely
scattered showers expected as a weak disturbance crosses the
region. Afternoon highs will be warmer on Sunday. Highs will
range from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday night into Monday, ridging aloft will move overhead,
along with warmer temperatures in the mid-levels. Deterministic
model runs indicate temps near 20 - 22C at 850hPa, so think
temps will be slightly higher than current deterministic run
of the NBM is showing. Not sure dewpoints will rise enough to
worry about heat headlines; right now it just looks like a muggy
day with highs in the mid to upper 80s. On Tuesday another cold
front will approach from the west, bringing clouds early on
which will help keep high temps slightly lower. Some potential
for thunderstorms ahead of the front, however right now CAPEs
are very low, even in the CAMs. Plenty of shear and high
PWATs around 1.8 to 1.9", so cannot rule out heavy precip and
maybe some gusty winds withe precip loaded thunderstorms but
overall the severe potential does not look high at the moment.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The precip will pass through on Tuesday night, clearing for
Weds, but the cooler air will not arrive until Thursday. This
generates an opportunity for some air-mass thunderstorms across
the north on Wednesday night. On Thursday, cooler air will
begin to move in, and by Friday high temps will be much more
seasonable. Timing of the upper level trough crossing the area
is variable at the moment, so weather for Friday and Saturday
still remains uncertain with somewhat low confidence in the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM:

FVE...MVFR, becoming IFR aft 20Z and continuing through midday
Sunday. Conditions possibly going below airport mins 09Z-13Z.
S to SE wind 5 to 15 kt with G20kt.

KCAR...MVFR, becoming IFR aft 23z and continuing through midday
Sunday. S to SE wind 5 to 15 kt with G20kt.

KPQI...MVFR, becoming IFR aft 22z and continuing through midday
Sunday. S to SE wind 5 to 15 kt with G20kt.

KHUL...MVFR, becoming IFR aft 21z and continuing through midday
Sunday. Conditions possibly below airport mins 02Z through 13Z
Sunday. S to SE wind 5 to 15 kt with G20kt.

KBGR...MVFR, becoming IFR aft 20Z and continuing through midday
Sunday. S to SE wind 5 to 15 kt with G20kt.

KBHB...MVFR, becoming IFR aft 21Z and continuing through 14Z
Sunday. S to SE wind 5 to 15 kt with G20kt. Isld T-storm
possible this evening but too much uncertainty to include in the
TAF attm.


SHORT TERM:

Sunday night-Monday...Mainly VFR. IFR fog possible over
Downeast terminals Monday morning. Light W winds becoming S by
Monday evening, at 5-10kts.

Monday night-Tuesday...MVFR/IFR in -SHRA/TSRA. Limited
potential for TS on station. Potential for some fog development
in valleys and coastal areas. Winds from the S at 5kts,
becoming SW at 5-10kts, with gusts up to 20kts, on Tuesday
afternoon.

Tuesday night-Wednesday..VFR/MVFR. Winds from the SW at
5-10kts, gusting up to 20kts, becoming W Wednesday morning.

Wednesday  Wednesday night...VFR. Winds from the W at 5-10
kts, gusts 20-25kt possible, becoming SW overnight.

Thursday...VFR south, MFVR in -SHRA north. Limited potential for
afternoon TS across the north. W wind 10 to 15kts becoming
light.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Wind/seas below SCA criteria through Sunday, although
a few gusts to 25 kt are possible. Visibility will be reduced
to 1 to 3 NM in showers, isolated thunderstorms, and patchy fog
tonight, then scattered morning showers and patchy fog Sunday
morning.

SHORT TERM: Potential for SCA criteria returns Tues/Tues night
with gusts to 25kts, mainly offshore. Winds will decrease below
25kts by Weds a.m. Seas 2 to 4 feet, becoming 3 to 5 feet on
Tues.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...TWD/LF
Marine...TWD/LF