362
FXUS61 KCAR 151747
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
147 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Several weak troughs of low pressure will cross the area today
through Tuesday. A cold front approaches the area Tuesday night,
then slowly crosses the region Wednesday and Wednesday night.
An upper level disturbance passes on Thursday with high pressure
building in through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
145 pm update...
Showers are developing acrs the north this afternoon but are
very isolated at best. Temps acrs the North Woods haven`t risen
warm enuf to boost showers past the cap present, although they
are certainly trying their hardest. Have lowered pops acrs the
north and have confined showers and storms to north of Bangor.
No other chgs needed.

Previous Discussion:
The ridge of high pressure in place early this morning will
continue to shift eastward through the day today, allowing for
return flow to advect warm, moist air into the forecast area.
Coupled with a weak shortwave trough crossing the area during
the day today, scattered showers will develop through the region
this afternoon, with some isolated thunderstorms possible.
Forecast CAPE values of around 500 J/kg across the north and
Interior Downeast regions combined with steep low level lapse
rates will support moderate convective development, but weak
shear less than 20 kts should limit any stronger storms from
forming.

Hot temperatures are in store for today once more, with
temperatures lifting into the mid to upper 80s across most of
the forecast area, and the Bangor area making a run for 90
today. Combined with dewpoints that remain elevated, heat
indices (what it feels like) could lift into the low to mid 90s
today. Even though the forecast is for heat indices to remain
just below heat advisory levels, the weather will still be quite
hot and humid. During this time, remember to avoid overexertion
during peak heating hours and stay hydrated. And as always,
never leave people or pets inside a hot vehicle.

Warm temperatures will continue into the overnight hours,
providing little in the way of relief. Lows may only fall into
the mid to upper 60s, and dewpoints will remain around the same,
leading to the returned chance for patchy fog to develop in
areas where winds diminish, or areas which receive recent
rainfall. Additionally, another small vorticity max that is
currently positioned over the Great Lakes will wrap its way
north through the New England region, and could lead to the
development of nocturnal showers and storms up through Maine
shortly before daybreak on Tuesday. There remains some
uncertainty of where this vorticity will track, should the vort
max hold together at all. That said, CAMs are in general
consensus that CAPE will be on the rise, potentially making a
run for 1500 J/kg. Lapse rates will be less steep given the time
of night, but shear will be on the increase given the pattern.
Thus, isolated thunderstorms remain a possibility late tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The region is under SW flow aloft Tuesday-Wednesday night with
shortwaves embedded in the flow bringing isolated to scattered
showers to the region. The risk of showers will be mainly north
of Downeast Maine Tuesday and Tuesday night, then spread to all
of northern and eastern Maine for Wednesday and Wednesday night.

There is also a slight chance for thunderstorms during the
afternoon. Both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon should feature
around 1000-1500 J/kg of CAPE, but shear should be higher on
Wednesday (40-45KT) vice Tuesday (20-30KT). So the best threat
for any organized strong to possibly severe convection should be
on Wednesday. With precipitable waters on Tuesday around
1.25-1.75 inches and on Wednesday of 1.5-2 inches will allow for
locally heavy downpours in any stronger convection. This could
produce at a minimum the ponding of water on roadways and
possibly minor flooding of known low lying and poor drainage
areas on Tuesday with the possibility of isolated flash flooding
on Wednesday.

It will also be hot and humid both days, with highs generally in
the 80s (with some isolated readings around 90 on Tuesday)
coupled with dewpoints around 70 on Tuesday and from the mid 60s
to lower 70s on Wednesday producing afternoon heat indices from
the upper 80s to mid 90s on Tuesday and mid 80s to mid 90s on
Wednesday. Heat indices will be highest across the Bangor
Region, southern portions of the Central Highlands, and interior
portions of Downeast Maine both days. There is still too much
uncertainty to issue a heat advisory for these areas at this
time, but the threat bears continued monitoring.

The risk for heat indices around advisory levels Tuesday and
Wednesday and the threat for strong to severe storms on
Wednesday will be highlighted in the HWO.

Patchy to areas of fog, possibly lowering visibilities to under
a mile is also possible at night/early in the morning each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A northern stream trough approaches Thursday and Thursday night
then crosses the area Friday. This could bring another round of
scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms on Thursday, however
any thunder should be mainly elevated in nature so should not
produce any strong storms. OTher than possibly some lingering
showers Thursday evening, the low levels should be sufficiently
dry Thursday night and Friday to preclude any precipitation
then.

SW flow sets up again aloft over the region Friday night-Sunday.
There is uncertainty in the timing of a frontal system for
Saturday night/Sunday. Depending on the timing, there could be
another round of convection ahead of this front, this is more
likely with a daytime vice night time frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR for northern terminals next 24 hours. May see
vcsh this afternoon and again after 12z Tuesday. Downeast
terminals likely to see IFR overnight in low cigs and fog. BHB
may drop to LIFR between 07z-12z. Improvement expected after
mid-morning for southern terminals.

SHORT TERM:
Tuesday-Wednesday night...MVFR or lower possible at night/early
in the morning. Otherwise VFR, except for brief periods of MVFR
or lower possible in any stronger showers/thunderstorms during
the afternoon/early evening. LLWS possible Tuesday and Wednesday night
at southern terminals.

Thursday...Mainly VFR, except for brief periods of MVFR possible
in any stronger convection. W-NW winds G15-20KT possible.

Thursday night-Friday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory
conditions today through tonight, though gusts may briefly approach
20 kts on the coastal waters this evening. Patchy fog could
reduce visibilities below 1 mile at times through the near term.

SHORT TERM: Areas of fog reducing visibilities to under 1nm is
likely in the morning/at night Tuesday-Thursday morning.
Winds/seas should be just under SCA levels on the coastal ocean
waters Tuesday-Wednesday evening. All waters should see
conditions well below SCA levels late Wednesday night-Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/Buster
Short Term...Maloit
Long Term...Maloit
Aviation...AStrauser/Buster/Maloit
Marine...AStrauser/Buster/Maloit