838
FXUS62 KCAE 191837
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
237 PM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will be stationary across the region for the
next several days with increased shower and thunderstorm
activity mainly in the afternoon and evenings. Some locally
heavy rainfall is possible which could result in rising levels
in area rivers. Temperatures will be near to slightly below
through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
  evening.
- Locally heavy rainfall could lead to urban or flash flooding.
- Gusty winds possible with the stronger storms.

Water vapor imagery this afternoon continues to show the area
in between a deepening trough axis located along the lower
Mississippi Valley with an upper ridge off the coast. This
continues to support deep SW flow across the area with a
shortwave currently generating convection in southern Georgia
late this morning. A stationary front to the northwest of the
area not expected to move through the day as the upper flow
remains parallel to the boundary. PWATs similarly high to
yesterday, above 2 inches with a slight uptick possible into the
afternoon to around 2.25 inches. While much of the area was
stable a couple hours ago, starting to see some destabilization
with clearing of the low clouds, especially across the southern
portion of the forecast area.

Expect moderate to strong destabilization today which along
with the aformentioned shortwave and convergence provided by the
surface boundary (although the , will lead widespread showers
and storms to once again develop mainly late this afternoon into
this evening. The severe potential seems a bit more limited
today as instability profiles on forecast soundings are long and
skinny, indicating updrafts may not become as strong. In
addition, temperatures will be a bit cooler today (upper 80s to
low 90s) and low level lapse rates will not be as steep.
Strongest storms could still produce gusty winds as typical of
our summertime convective pattern. With the pattern becoming
wetter in the last week or so, there is the potential of some
flooding. Although widespread issues remain unlikely with
steering flow between 15 to 20 knots, any training of storms,
which remains possible with a series of shortwaves moving
through and a boundary near the area, could lead to localized
flash flooding. Similar to yesterday, storms could linger into
the nighttime hours but generally coverage will diminish.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
- Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms likely through
  this weekend

Saturday and Sunday the upper level trough will continue
digging through the MS Valley while the Bermuda high will remain
over the western Atlantic. The stalled frontal boundary over the
region will also remain in place however continue to become
more diffuse with time. This will keep moist onshore flow in the
low levels with the mid and upper levels advecting moisture
into the area from the GoM. This will keep pwat values at or
above 2 inches through the majority of the weekend.The
atmosphere will also remain weakly to moderately unstable with a
bit better upper level divergence Sunday however most of the
winds through the column will be 30 knots or less. Concerns
through the short term remain focused on potential for locally
heavy rainfall along with training cells...especially over areas
which have received recent heavy rainfall. This also aligns
with WPC analysis with the entire forecast area under a marginal
risk of excessive rainfall Saturday and most of the area on
Sunday. Along with the potential for heavy rainfall will be the
potential for strong and gusty winds due to precipitation
loading. With the clouds and convection across the area high
temperatures will be held to near climatology in the upper 80s
to low 90s each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message(s):

-The pattern remains favorable for daily chances of afternoon
 and evening showers and thunderstorms

The highly amplified upper level pattern will persist from the
eastern Pacific through the eastern US. The remains of the
frontal boundary will be very undefined however continue to be a
focusing mechanism for convection. Pwat values will persist
around 2 inches with the main question remaining being the
potential for short waves rotating through the base of the
trough to initiate convection. Current model analysis depicts
numerous short waves moving through the region next week so
expect plenty of opportunities for convection to be generated.
As such have remained with likely pops for much of next week
with high chance pops late in the period due to slightly lower
confidence. Concerns with convection will remain the same as
this weekend with potential for locally heavy rainfall and gusty
winds due to precip loading. Much of the area also remains
under a WPC marginal risk for Monday and Tuesday. High
temperatures through the period will be near to slightly below
normal with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s each
day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions in place with widespread storms this evening and
possible restrictions tonight.

Widespread showers and storms in southern Georgia will push into
the region from the southwest with an upper level disturbance
over the area. This will lead to storms at the terminals with
gusty winds and tempo visibility restrictions. Showers linger
into tonight, although storms are expected to dissipate before
midnight. Guidance has continued to trend towards the potential
for restrictions tonight once again, although for now have just
included sct low cloud deck and 6sm visibility with uncertainty
as to the exact timing. Restrictions this morning were in the
tempo category so may handle with a tempo group once again.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Periods of showers and
thunderstorms may cause restrictions each day. In addition,
brief early morning restrictions may become more likely around
sunrise into the weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$