824
FXUS62 KCAE 201842
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
242 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will be stationary across the region for the
next several days with increased shower and thunderstorm
activity mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. Some
locally heavy rainfall is possible which could result localized
flash flooding and rising levels in area rivers. Temperatures
will be near to slightly below through the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Scattered showers and storms move into the area this evening.
- A few thunderstorms may become strong to severe with gusty
  winds as the primary severe hazard.

Deep southwesterly flow remains across the forecast area today,
continuing to support deep layer moisture over the forecast area
with satellite derived PWAT estimates around 2 inches. The
showers that moved through the area late morning and early
afternoon have mostly dissipated. With another shortwave moving
currently generating convection in southern Georgia, expect
another round of convection, with higher chances for
thunderstorms this evening. Current tracking puts this activity
moving into the Augusta area between 5 and 6pm a bit earlier
from HiRes model timing and then moving into the Columbia area
an hour or two later. There will likely be sufficient time
between this first batch of showers and then activity this
evening to achieve at least moderate destabilization. A marginal
risk for severe weather remains in place across the area with
forecast soundings indicating higher low level theta-e
difference and stronger deep layer shear, indicating more of a
damaging wind gust threat and more organized multi-cellular
clusters compared to yesterday. Does look like storms should be
moving quicker compared to yesterday which should minimize the
flooding threat but any storms that do develop will have high
rain rates in the high moisture environment. Temperatures
continue to be near seasonal average in the upper 80s to low 90s
for highs and low 70s for lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Showers and thunderstorms along with the potential for locally
  heavy rainfall continues

The remains of the frontal boundary will remain across the
region and continue to act as a focusing mechanism for
convection. The upper trough axis will also be nearly stationary
from the western Great Lakes through northern TX with short
waves rotating through the axis and across the SE US. Pwat
values will also be persistent at or slightly above 2 inches.
Winds aloft will be slightly stronger than the past couple days
however will remain less than 40 knots through the column. This
will keep the potential for locally heavy rainfall over the
region through Monday and WPC continues to keep the forecast
area under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. With expected
storm motion around 15 mph will need to monitor for localized
flooding as much of the forecast area has received a couple
inches of rain over the past several days with some areas
receiving several inches of rain on just Friday. The wind threat
will also continue as precip loading will continue. With the
clouds and trough over the eastern US afternoon high
temperatures each day will be in the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Potential for showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy
  rainfall continue through the middle of next week
- Upper level pattern begins shifting late next week

The upper level pattern will remain highly amplified through the
middle of the week then begin breaking down near the end of the
week. This will keep the very moist and unstable air mass over
the forecast area with pops remaining in the likely range
through the week however there is a gradual lowering trend
beginning Friday. Concerns remain relatively the same through
the week with potential for locally heavy rainfall along with
strong and gusty winds. With soils becoming increasingly
saturated will also continue to monitor the potential for
flooding and with rising river levels. Temperatures through the
long term will be near normal with highs in the upper 80s to low
90s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions in place with thunderstorms expected once again
to impact the terminals this evening and restrictions possible
near sunrise.

Thunderstorms have developed across southern Georgia and
continue to move northeastward towards the terminals. Near term
trends indicate thunderstorms will approach the
Augusta/OGB terminals between 5 to 6pm and the Columbia
terminals between 7 and 8pm. Similarly to the past few days,
this will lead to gusty winds and brief IFR visibility
restrictions at times. Coverage of storms diminishes overnight.
With lingering low level moisture, went with a somewhat
persistent forecast bringing low MVFR ceilings everywhere expect
OGB where guidance continues to favor VFR conditions.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms likely each day and
may cause brief restrictions. Abundant low level moisture may
cause early morning restrictions through mid-week.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$