144
FXUS62 KCAE 160115
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
915 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Shower and thunderstorm chances increase during the mid-week
period as a trough sets up over the eastern US and a cold front
approaches from the north and west. This boundary is expected to
stall over the Southeastern US during the late week period
keeping increased rain chances in the forecast with a gradual
decrease in daytime temperatures expected through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Another mild night.
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms overnight.

Earlier convection has produced plenty of outflows intermingling
across the forecast area, with some collisions bringing additional
scattered showers and storms. This activity is expected to
continue for several more hours before finally beginning to
dissipate after Midnight. Plenty of cloud cover around tonight
will help to keep lows above normal, with readings in the mid to
upper 70s still expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase through the period
- Hot and humid conditions continue with the potential for another
Heat Advisory on Tuesday

Upper ridging builds over the Western CONUS during the short term
while trough begins to develop in response to this over the east.
Meanwhile, the Bermuda High will continue to advect moisture into
the region while a cold front slowly approaches from the north and
west on Wednesday. This will result in increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances, especially on Wednesday as the aforementioned
frontal boundary approaches. The lack of steering flow combined with
high moisture could result in areas of localized heavy rainfall and
potential hydrological issues due to slow moving and/or training
thunderstorms.

In terms of temperatures, Tuesday is expected to be another hot and
humid day. Will need to monitor for the possibility of heat products
again tomorrow. The primary forecast challenge for temperatures will
be the increased potential for showers and thunderstorms and whether
heat index values will meet or exceed criteria prior to convective
development. A slight cooling trend should then commence on
Wednesday will a lower likelihood for heat products.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected each day
- Gradual cooling trend continues during the late week period

Upper trough continues to dig over the middle of the country during
the extended period while surface high pressure remains anchored
near Bermuda. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected each day as the previously mentioned frontal boundary
stalls across the region. The front, combined with passing short
waves, should support more robust convective development with the
potential for locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding. A
few thunderstorms could become strong and produce gusty winds though
the overall severe weather threat appears to be low through the
extended. The additional clouds and convection during the late week
period should result in a continued "cooling" trend with a highs
falling to below normal values by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions generally expected through the TAF period outside
of overnight convection.

Numerous outflows interacting across the region has help to
keep isolated to scattered convection going this evening. This
activity has impacted every taf site, and with convection still
possible through 04z, can not rule out additional impacts at any
site. After 04z, activity should be diminishing with lessening
impacts the remainder of the night. Brief ifr conditions
possible with any storms. Outside of the convection, mostly vfr
conditions are forecast. There will still be scattered to broken
clouds, but these remain above 6 kft through the period.
Convection should increase again Tuesday afternoon, but timing
and coverage questions will keep mention out of tafs for now.
Winds become light and variable overnight, then increase again
out of the southwest around 10 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Typical summertime afternoon
showers and thunderstorms may cause periodic restrictions each
day with abundant moisture causing possible, brief early morning
restrictions around sunrise.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$