248
FXUS62 KCAE 181722
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
122 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low will remain over the area today promoting mostly cloudy
skies and a few showers or thunderstorms. High pressure will build
into the area from New England over the weekend into early next week
with dry and seasonable temperatures expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Expect scattered showers today and a few thunderstorms

The upper level low over the NC/SC Piedmont will hang over the
region today. Convection will continue to increase in coverage and
intensity this afternoon as the upper low and vort max shifts east
and convection is enhanced by daytime heating. We would expect to
see some thunderstorms in the afternoon with mean SREF muCAPE values
around 500 to 750 J/kg with highest values along the coastal plain.
The threat of severe weather is low given the weak instability.
Cloud cover, showers, and below normal 500 mb heights support below
normal daytime temps with highs in the low to mid 80s. Showers
should diminish during the evening as the upper low shifts to our
east and we lose daytime heating. Lows overnight in the mid to upper
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Isolated to scattered showers Thursday, drier Friday.
- Seasonable temperatures.

Upper low that`s been traversing across the region the past few
days will finally be moving off to the east through the day
Thursday. Associated trough axis will then move off the east
coast Friday. Enough moisture and weak instability on the
backside of the exiting low could produce isolated to scattered
showers/storms by Thursday afternoon, primarily across the
northeastern counties. As the low and trough axis move offshore,
northwesterly winds aloft will help usher in drier air. Skies
become partly cloudy, allowing a good amount of sunshine through
the day. This will bring afternoon highs into the low to mid
80s both days. Overnight lows fall into the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

-Trending drier for the weekend into early next week with
 seasonable temperatures

Really not too much change in the longer range forecast. Upper
trough will be off the east coast, while some ridging builds
into the area from the west through the weekend. This combines
with surface ridge building southward from New England to keep
dry weather in the majority of the longer term period. Next
chance for any rainfall appears to be just outside of the
current forecast period. Temperatures remain seasonable
with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and lows mainly in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered showers and possibly thunderstorms today which may briefly
reduce VSBYs at the terminals. MVFR CIGS possible Thursday morning.

An upper level system will linger over the region today promoting
scattered -SHRA/-TSRA and low clouds. Convection is expected to
increase in coverage and intensity over the next several hours,
though confidence is low regarding impacts at the terminals. Winds
generally SLY/SWLY this afternoon at 5-10 kts. Later this evening
into tonight, there is potential for another round MVFR/IFR CIG/VSBY
restrictions at all terminals. Light winds overnight and decreasing
cloud cover could also lead to the typical fog problems at AGS.
Winds on Thursday generally becoming north to northeast behind the
departing upper level system with skies clearing late in the day.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Drier air late this week should
limit the threat of restrictions. As moisture begins to increase
late this weekend and early next week we could see additional
restrictions develop.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$