605
FXUS62 KCAE 070536
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
136 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture increases, with scatter to numerous showers and
thunderstorms expected through the weekend. Above normal
temperatures are expected again, with Heat Index values above
100 each day through next week. Atmospheric moisture remains
high through the long term supporting a chance of showers and
thunderstorms each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across the
region, currently impacting the CSRA most significantly. Flash
flooding is a definite threat with this activity as hourly
rainfall rates per obs and radar have exceeded 3" per hour in
the heaviest rain today. So will continue to watch this as PWs
(per SPC Mesoanalysis) are exceeding 2.5" in this part of the
forecast area. Storm motion is slow and with southwesterly flow
aloft and plenty of converging boundaries, storms have been
training this afternoon and evening. Do expect this activity to
gradually wind down into a more stratiform precip by the middle
of the night but it isn`t out of the question that showers hang
around all night in isolated places given copious moisture.
Temps should bottom out in the mid 70s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s) - Not quite as hot with an increase in
convective activity.

Surface boundary stalled across the area will be the primary
focusing mechanism for afternoon shower and thunderstorm develop
once again on Sunday. Upper trough sets up across the middle of
the U.S., with the southeastern States still on the western edge
of the Atlantic Ridge aloft. Southwesterly winds aloft begin
bringing more Gulf moisture into the area. By Monday the surface
boundary will dissipate, and the main focus will be from left
over convective boundaries, along with possible sea-breeze
activity. Temperatures will cool slightly with the expected
increase in cloud cover through the period, but will still be
from around 90 to the middle 90s. Heat index around 100 both
days.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Message(s) - Continued with a more typical summertime
weather pattern.

Pattern will be somewhat stagnant aloft through the period.
Upper trough remains across the middle of the country, with our
area on the western portions of western Atlantic ridge. This
general pattern will keep upper winds more out of the southwest,
bringing Gulf moisture towards the region, while at the surface
winds will be more out of the south to southeast allowing
Atlantic moisture to move inland. Triggers for any afternoon
convection will be inland moving sea-breeze and associated
outflows moving in from the east, along with potential for lee-
side trough over the west. There should be more cloud cover move
across the region each day, so afternoon highs are expected to
stay away from the century mark, with readings mainly in the
lower to middle 90s. However with all the moisture in low-
levels, heat index values will be able to rise back above 100
degrees through much of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Restrictions expected toward morning with low clouds and patchy
fog.

Deep moisture across the area today. Satellite and observations
indicating scattered low clouds at 06z with mid and high level
ceilings. Models are suggesting stratus will develop toward
daybreak with relatively high confidence for MVFR conditions
with areas of IFR ceiling/visibility after 09z with highest
confidence at the AGS/DNL terminals. Low clouds will be slow to
erode but by 15-18z expect VFR ceilings and light and variable
winds favoring southeast-south. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms expected to develop in the afternoon as air mass
will be moist and moderately unstable. CAM models show different
solutions but think thunderstorms will develop in the SC
Piedmont near the front and expand to the east/southeast during
the late afternoon and early evening. Thunderstorms will be
capable of producing heavy rain/reduced visibility at times.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms each day. Early morning low
stratus possible.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$