816
FXUS65 KBYZ 070045
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
645 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.UPDATE...

Shortwaves continued to move SE through the region in cyclonic
flow aloft producing showers and a few thunderstorms SW and NE of
KBIL this evening. Tweaked PoPs thru 03Z to match radar trends
more closely. More showers and thunderstorms were over N central
and NE MT moving SSE. Based on CAMs and deterministic models, have
added low (20%) PoPs to areas E and S of KBIL after 06Z. Did not
update Sunday morning PoPs, but next shift can determine if this
is necessary. MLCAPEs this evening were around 500 J/kg and Bulk
Effective Shear was 35 to 40 kt, supporting a low chance of
thunder. Arthur

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Through Monday...

Showers and thunderstorms will begin to die down around 06Z
tonight, lingering longest in the east near the Dakotas border.
Sunday will be defined by rising heights as the ridge to our west
starts its slow migration to the east. Overall, temperatures will
be similar to today in the high 70s to low 80s. Sunday afternoon
will see 10-20% Pops across our eastern regions resulting from
cyclonic flow and remnant potential vorticity in the area. This is
expected to bring showers and general thunderstorms. Monday will
continue the trend of rising heights and will be the first step in
our temperature climb throughout the week. Most locations can
expect temperatures to be in the high 80s to low 90s. Torgerson

Tuesday through Saturday...

Cluster analysis shows models remain very consistent with high
pressure and heat being the main weather feature for the extended.
Conditions should primarily be dry with little chance of
measurable precipitation, especially at the lower elevations.
However, there is a hint of some mid level moisture working up
from the south in a weak monsoonal flow pattern. This could bring
some (<20% coverage) high based convection, mainly to the
mountains by the end of next week.

High temperatures are expected to increase from 80 to lower 90s
Tuesday to the 96 to 102 range by Thursday. Currently, for most
locations over the plains, there is a 50-90% chance of hitting at
least 100 degrees by Thursday. Locations along the river valleys
have the greatest chance, particularly from east of Billings to
Miles City. Additionally, these temps may stick around into next
weekend, with a 30-60% chance of 100 or better for the same areas
on Friday and Saturday. Heat related products may be needed for
the latter part of next week. BT

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact the area through
about 03Z this evening. Storms will move from NW to SE and may
produce brief MVFR in heavy rain, small hail, and erratic wind
gusts. A few sfc gusts may reach 40kt. A few light showers or
thunderstorms will linger overnight in southeast MT and in the
KSHR area.

TS POTENTIAL TIMES AND PROBABILITIES FOR THIS EVENING:
KBIL 01Z-02Z (20%)
KLVM 01Z-02Z (15%)
KMLS 01Z-09Z (20%)
KSHR 01Z-10Z (20%)

Arthur

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054/080 055/089 060/091 061/096 064/102 065/098 066/098
    20/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/G    11/U    11/U
LVM 048/080 050/088 054/090 056/095 060/098 059/096 059/096
    21/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    11/B
HDN 051/080 050/089 055/091 057/096 060/102 064/099 063/099
    11/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/G    10/U    10/U
MLS 055/080 055/086 058/089 060/093 064/099 067/099 067/098
    31/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    10/U
4BQ 054/077 053/086 057/088 059/093 064/100 067/101 068/099
    21/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/G    10/U
BHK 052/078 053/084 055/087 056/088 061/096 062/097 063/095
    31/B    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    10/U
SHR 049/077 049/085 053/088 054/093 059/099 061/099 061/098
    22/T    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    10/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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