007
FXUS65 KBYZ 040803
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
203 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday Night...

Independence day brings with it a light splattering of shower and
storm potential across southern MT, but with some clearing
expected in the evening for dry sunset and nighttime period.

Broad cyclonic flow is keeping very light rain showers persisting
across eastern MT tonight, though these should dissipate later
this morning before the next round in the afternoon. With the
recent rain from the past day, surface moisture has a small chance
to contribute to bringing about areas of patchy fog across
southeast MT, mainly near streams and valleys, through mid this
morning.

A weak, embedded shortwave will cross eastern Montana this
afternoon and bring about a 20-60% chance for showers and the
occasional, light thunderstorm, with the higher odds in the far
east in Fallon and Carter Counties. Relatively low impacts
expected, as rain will be light to moderate, and wind and hail
threats are low as well. However, any shower could become a stor,
and hence contain lightning this afternoon, so take necessary
precautions if you have any outdoor plans through the day.
Fortunately, the wave is progged to exit the area this evening.
with a high chance for all shower and storm potential to be done
by 8PM in most places (maybe a couple hours later for far SE
Montana), bringing about a nice, yet cool 4th of July evening and
night. Temperatures will be similar to yesterday, wit highs only
climbing into the low to mid 70s.

Friday remains more of the same, with us still staying under the
cyclonic flow and having another small chance for light showers
and storms in the afternoon. That said, slowly building heights
will help temperatures to climb into the upper 70s to low 80s.

Vertz
Saturday through Thursday...

Short waves moving through the flow will bring a 30-40% chance of
precipitation to the mountains and a 20-30% chance to lower
elevations on Saturday. Any accumulations look to remain low,
with only around a 30% chance of at least 0.1" over the mountains
and generally less than a 25% chance over the rest of the area.

Isolated showers may linger over the mountains and far eastern
edge of the region through Sunday afternoon. Then, upper level
ridging will build in, bringing dry conditions and steadily
increasing daily high temperatures.

Over the weekend, highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Then,
for Monday, highs will be in the 80s to near 90. Highs are
expected to gradually increase each day through the week,
reaching the 90s to near 100 by Thursday. For Wednesday, the
chance of seeing temperatures above 100 is 10-25% along lower
elevation river valleys. For Thursday, the chance along the same
areas increases to 30-45%. Archer

&&

.AVIATION...


There is a small chance for light rain showers to persist around
KMLS through this morning, with a short, dry period in the later
morning before showers come back in the afternoon

Still a small chance for patchy fog to develop after 08z through
15z, mainly in low lying areas below 3500 feet MSL. This includes
KBIL, KSHR, KMLS TAF locations. Development is most likely from
Rosebud county east where the boundary layer is deepest, but just
about any low elevation river valley will support patchy fog
overnight. Where fog develops expect flight conditions down to
LIFR levels. Fog is not in the TAFs due to the large uncertainty.

Small chance for showers and thunderstorms return this afternoon
for all terminals, but with higher potential (50-60% chance) near
KMLS. Storms are expected to be on the weaker side, with only
gusts to 40 mph and small hail expected at most. All precipitation
potential will disappear from all terminals by 03z.

Vertz
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 076 052/082 054/084 054/081 054/089 058/092 061/095
    2/T 22/T    12/T    20/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
LVM 075 045/080 048/082 047/081 050/088 053/091 056/093
    2/T 21/U    02/T    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
HDN 076 049/082 049/084 050/081 050/089 055/092 057/096
    2/T 22/T    22/T    21/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
MLS 074 055/079 055/080 055/080 056/086 058/090 060/091
    4/T 33/T    22/T    21/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
4BQ 074 053/079 053/082 054/079 053/085 057/089 059/091
    3/T 22/T    22/T    21/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 071 052/076 050/078 052/077 053/081 055/086 056/087
    6/T 23/T    23/T    22/T    00/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 074 048/079 049/082 049/078 048/086 052/089 054/092
    3/T 21/U    22/T    31/U    00/U    00/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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