975
FXUS65 KBYZ 191645
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
1045 AM MDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.UPDATE...

Isolated showers and thunderstorms were continuing to move south
and east over southern portions of the area this morning as a weak
shortwave gradually slid south and east. Behind the morning
convection, expect a brief break before isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible over the area this afternoon,
decreasing this evening. Have updated PoPs and wind through
tonight. STP

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Saturday Night...

Showers and thunderstorms are dissipating this morning, however,
some isolated to scattered (15-25%) storms may persist over the
eastern edge of the region. Upper level flow is expected to become
more northwesterly today, and passing shortwaves will bring a
15-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms over the mountains this
afternoon and a 20-40% chance over the mountains Saturday
afternoon with a 10-20% chance over lower elevations.

As the flow becomes northwesterly, the impacts of wildfire smoke
from the west will decrease. However, it will open the door for
smoke from Canadian wildfires out of northern Alberta.

High temperatures today and Saturday will be slightly cooler, with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Archer

Sunday through Thursday...

WPC 500 mb clusters showed good agreement on the overall flow
pattern during this forecast period. The overall pattern is a
ridge over western North America this weekend that then slides
eastward to central North America by mid/late week. Although the
ridge will slide eastward, our weather will still be dominated by
the ridge.

Sensible weather will be continued very warm/hot conditions with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (20-40% chance)
mainly confined to the mountains, until Thursday when isolated
showers/storms are expected (20% chance) over the lower
elevations of south central MT. Wildfire smoke likely will be in
our area, at least aloft. High temperatures will generally be in
the 80s and 90s Sunday and Monday then 90s Tuesday and 90s to
lower 100s Wednesday and Thursday. NBM again shows relatively low
uncertainty in the high temperature forecast, with the 10th to
90th percentile at Billings ranging from 88-95F on Sunday to
95-104F on Thursday. In addition, NBM shows a 20-60% chance of
temperatures reaching 100F or higher in the valleys of south
central MT and north central WY (greatest probability near
Yellowstone County), and a 20-70% chance on Thursday, with the
area of greater probability values expanding to Custer and Powder
River Counties. RMS

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms are decreasing and moving out of the
area this morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over the
area this afternoon, with the best chance near KBHK. Expect
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the mountains
this afternoon. Slantwise visibility may be reduced at times due
to wildfire smoke. Archer/STP


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 094 064/093 064/092 064/093 063/096 065/100 067/101
    2/T 01/U    11/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    01/G
LVM 093 057/091 054/090 055/091 055/097 058/099 057/098
    1/U 01/U    11/U    00/U    01/U    11/U    12/T
HDN 094 062/093 059/092 060/093 060/098 061/100 063/103
    2/T 12/T    11/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/G
MLS 092 065/091 064/090 064/090 064/094 065/097 067/100
    2/T 12/T    11/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
4BQ 092 065/091 063/089 062/089 063/094 064/098 065/100
    2/T 11/U    11/U    01/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 089 061/088 059/086 059/088 060/089 060/094 061/096
    2/T 12/T    11/U    11/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 091 058/090 055/088 056/089 056/095 058/097 059/099
    2/T 12/T    12/T    01/U    00/U    00/U    01/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings