Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
264
FXUS65 KBYZ 130910
AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
310 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday night...
Hot conditions will continue through the weekend. Relief from the
heat arrives Sunday night into Monday. Record highs are tough to
beat this time of year, so we do not anticipate any new records.
Nevertheless, conditions like this can lead to heat related
illnesses and other issues. Please be wise and use caution
outdoors. A heat advisory will remain in place through Sunday at
900 PM.
Perturbation in westerly flow that went through our area last
night is exiting to the east early this morning. We may see
lingering showers and maybe an embedded lightning strike yet in
our SE before sunrise.
Otherwise, expect hot temps again today in the 95 to around 100
degree range. It appears convection will be suppressed a little
further south than yesterday, initiating late day around
Yellowstone Park and moving west along the MT/WY border into the
Big Horns in the evening. This should be relatively high based
with little chance of anything larger than small hail, but some
wind gusts to 50+ mph is possible locally based on steep lapses
rates and dry air in lower to mid levels. What we really need to
keep an eye on is our far east central sections as a stronger
wave is progged to track across northeast Montana into a
relatively moist air mass. MUCAPE is progged to be 1500-2000 J/kg
or better and progs show strong mid level flow and vertical
profiles result in significant updraft helicity. Helicity tracks
suggest the strongest storms track just north of Fallon county,
but would not be surprised to see some convection push a little
further south into Fallon or even Custer County. The Storms
Prediction Center has pushed the slight risk of severe storms down
into our CWA for later today into the evening. Any evening
convection should push east or dissipate by midnight.
Sunday will see more of the same with storms firing over the
mountains and pushing east...mainly along or near the MT/WY
border. Strong winds are again the main local threat with the
stronger cells. Highs will again be in the upper 90s to around
100. Models have been consistent in dropping a cool front down
across the area from the north late Sunday night. This should
cool our air mass off 5 to 10 degrees for Monday. Please see the
extended forecast below.
Fire Wx...We saw several wildfire starts from lightning in the
last 24 hours across southeast MT. So things seemed primed for
starts in the east. However, winds should remain relatively light
there today. We do see the potential for enhanced fire weather
conditions over areas west of Billings into the foothills. Winds
gusting 20-30 mph with RH values dropping into the teens in the
afternoon. While fuels are also curing quickly in this area, we
believe the areas with wind today in our west are mainly only
moderate for fire danger (mountains and foothills). The lower
elevation grasses are getting close to becoming cured out
(Wheatland down into Sweet Grass and Stillwater counties). The
Hot/Dry/Windy Index shows a 20 to 40 percent probability for
reaching the 95th percentile conditions today over the west.
Fosberg index is not to compelling either. Given the forecast
fire values and placement combined with the current fuels we will
hold off on fire highlites for now. That said please be very
careful with anything that may spark a fire this weekend.
...SAT JULY 13...
SITE RECORD YEAR
BIL 106 2005
LVM 103 2002
MLS 106 2005
SHR 107 2005
BHK 104 2002
...SUN JULY 14...
SITE RECORD YEAR
BIL 108 2002
LVM 104 2000
MLS 110 2002
SHR 107 2002
BHK 107 2002
BT
Monday through Friday...
Monday and Tuesday will bring a slight cooldown with temperatures
in the upper 80s to mid 90s. This will be short lived as ensembles
system are in good agreement in upper ridging building in again
middle to late next week. By Thursday and Friday next week
probabilities for 100 degree heat will return with 10-20% chances
for low lying areas along the Yellowstone east of Billings. Upper
ridging will lead to dry conditions. There is some disagreement
between the ensembles however with the ECMWF showing a cleaner
ridge with slightly higher temperatures, and the GFS showing more
of a dirty ridge with slightly lower temperatures and more
precipitation chances. Overall, this leads to daily 20-30%
precipitation chances for the southwest mountains and locations
along the Wyoming border due to monsoon moisture. There will be
fire concerns throughout the long term with some recent fire
starts across the region and continued drying from hot and dry
conditions. Torgerson
&&
.AVIATION...
There will be shower and thunderstorm chances (30%) starting
around 00z Sunday affecting KMLS and KBHK. Chances will dissipate
by 06z. These thunderstorms could be strong with winds gusting to
60kts. VFR conditions will prevail otherwise for most of the
region with light winds and dry conditions. Torgerson
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tdy Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 099 064/100 066/090 063/093 062/095 064/097 065/099
1/U 10/B 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U
LVM 097 059/096 058/092 056/091 055/093 057/095 059/096
1/U 01/B 12/T 12/T 12/T 11/U 11/U
HDN 099 061/101 063/091 060/094 059/096 061/098 062/099
0/U 10/G 21/U 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U
MLS 094 064/099 064/087 061/090 062/091 064/095 065/096
1/U 20/U 10/U 10/U 11/U 10/U 10/U
4BQ 097 066/101 068/089 062/092 062/091 064/095 064/096
0/U 10/G 21/B 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U
BHK 092 061/098 061/085 057/087 058/086 059/090 061/092
1/U 31/U 10/U 01/U 11/U 11/U 11/U
SHR 097 061/099 063/089 058/091 055/091 056/094 059/096
0/U 20/B 22/T 23/T 12/T 11/U 11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Heat Advisory in effect until 9 PM MDT Sunday FOR ZONES
29>34-36-37-40-42-56>58-63>66-138-139-141-169-170-172-173-228-235.
Red Flag Warning in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to
midnight MDT tonight FOR ZONE 117.
WY...Heat Advisory in effect until 9 PM MDT Sunday FOR ZONE 199.
&&
$$
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