263
FXUS61 KBUF 111715
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
115 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture from the exiting remains of Beryl will gradually thin out
across the region tonight...but that will likely lead to areas of
fog. High pressure from the Upper Great Lakes will then build across
the region on Friday...and this will supply the vast majority of
the forecast area with fair dry weather through the weekend. It will
be warm and moderately humid...with the warmest weather coming
during the weekend when daily highs will generally range from 85 to
90.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
While the center of circulation of whats left of Beryl is in the
process of crossing New England...a wealth of low level moisture
remains in its wake over our forecast area. This moisture will
gradually thin out as we progress through tonight...but it will be a
slow process and for areas that do experience some clearing...it
will likely lead to areas of fog. This fog could be dense in open
areas and across the higher terrain.

High pressure over the Upper Great lakes will then build across our
area Friday and Friday night. This will help to further clear out
the remaining low cloud cover while supporting fair dry weather. The
increased sunshine on Friday will make for a warmer day...as the
mercury will once again return to the low to mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave trough will ripple across southern Ontario and Quebec
onh Saturday with zonal flow setting up across the Lower Great
Lakes Saturday night. Meanwhile at the surface, ridging across
the eastern Great Lakes will support fair weather through for
the start of the weekend. However, temperatures and humidity
levels will be on the rise creating warm sticky conditions
Saturday. Highs Saturday will peak in the 80s with the warmest
temperatures across the Genesee Valley and south of Lake
Ontario.

The next mid-level shortwave trough will cross the Great Lakes
Sunday and Sunday night, which in return will support the next round
of showers and thunderstorms to enter into the region starting
Sunday afternoon. Despite the shower and thunderstorm activity,
should not the whole day will not be a complete wash out.
Southwesterly flow will advect in warm moist air into the region
Sunday, creating sultry conditions with highs maxing out in the
upper 80s across the Southern Tier and eastern Lake Ontario region
to the low 90s across the Genesee Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Longwave troughing will be in place across the Great Lakes
throughout the first half of the new work week. A few shortwave
troughs will rotate through this longwave pattern during this time
as well. With this pattern overhead, diurnally driven convection
will be possible each day. The last potent shortwave trough that
causes the longwave pattern to shift mid-week, will support a cold
front to pass from west to east, supporting showers and storms
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Despite the longwave troughing pattern overhead, warm westerly flow
will persist, maintaining temperatures well above average for the
start of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR to MVFR cigs will remain in place throughout the region this
afternoon into tonight. Areas that experience temporary clearing
during the course of tonight will promote low stratus and fog to
develop during the wee hours of the morning. The greatest chance for
real improvement will be over the IAG Frontier and possibly at KROC.

On Friday...IFR to MVFR cigs south and east of Buffalo and Rochester
will gradually improve to VFR levels by late morning/midday. Winds
will be light.

Outlook...

Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR. Just a slight chance for afternoon
thunderstorms across parts of the Srn Tier and Finger Lakes region.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR to MVFR cigs with scattered thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to fresh westerlies will be found on Lake Erie and western
Lake Ontario through early this afternoon. A SCA remains in effect
through 2 PM for eastern Lake Erie, with a brief period of near SCA
conditions possible across western Lake Ontario during this same
time period. Otherwise, the surface pressure gradient will begin
relax throughout the region later today and especially tonight into
Friday as high pressure from the upper Great Lakes moves into the
region. This will allow winds and waves to lower through the period.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     NYZ019.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ040-
         041.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...EAJ
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...JM