368
FXUS61 KBUF 121847
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
247 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of high pressure will build across the region today and
this weekend supporting mostly dry and fair weather. Warm and
moderately humid weather will return this weekend with highs
ranging in the mid 80s to the low 90s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Satellite imagery shows cumulus and congested cumulus across the
region this afternoon. Weak lake breezes have moved onshore with
mostly sunny skies along the lake shores. A few showers are possible
away from the lakes this afternoon.

A mid level trough is centered over the Great Lakes region this
afternoon. Deep southwest flow will continue across the forecast
area with PWATS ranging from 1.2-1.4 inches this afternoon. Showers
and a few thunderstorms have developed ahead of the mid-level trough
over northern Michigan and southern Ontario this afternoon. This
activity will stay outside the region, however daytime heating and
dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s has resulted in developing cumulus
across the region. A few showers can`t be ruled out across the
Niagara Frontier into the Finger Lakes region through this
afternoon.

Cumulus and any showers will subside this evening. The mid level
trough will move north of the region tonight while high pressure
settles across the region. There remains a light, warm, southerly
flow which will keep temperatures mild overnight. Valley fog will
form across the western Southern Tier and Black River Valley late
tonight into Saturday morning.

Surface high pressure remains across the forecast area Saturday and
Saturday night. A westerly flow aloft will drive slightly drier and
cooler air into the region Saturday. This will result in less
cumulus and a low chance of showers, mainly confined to the Finger
Lakes region Saturday afternoon. Temperatures and heat indices will
be very close to today, Friday. Dry weather will continue through
Saturday night. Patchy fog is possible Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will hold onto fair weather Sunday, with summer`s
warmth in the mid to upper 80s.

Sunday night and into Monday a shortwave within zonal flow will pass
across our region, interacting with an atmosphere with MUCAPE values
1000 to 2000 J/KG to produce showers and thunderstorms. There is
still some uncertainty to the timing of this convective shortwave
among various model outputs. Lake breeze circulations Monday
afternoon will likely develop additional storms pulsing up through
the early evening hours.

Will continue with a chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday
night with instability lingering within a still moist environment.

It will be warm this period, where the inland Genesee Valley and
Finger Lakes region may reach 90F both Sunday and Monday. Southwest
flow off the Lakes will likely leave the shoreline and inland areas
such as Buffalo and Watertown in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Moist, southwesterly flow Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a robust
mid level shortwave trough will maintain the threat of showers and
thunderstorms. Increasing wind shear Tuesday and Wednesday, along
with building CAPE aloft will bring the potential for strong
thunderstorms with strong winds and hail potential. The cold front
will sweep across our region Wednesday, bringing a drier airmass,
and more comfortable temperatures, with highs Thursday and Friday in
the mid to upper 70s with much less humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low to mid level moisture and daytime heating has resulted in
cumulus cloud bases between 3-5k feet outside of lake shadows this
afternoon. A few showers are possible away from the lakes through
23z. VFR conditions will continue across the region.

Surface high pressure will move into the region tonight through
Saturday. Daytime cumulus will diminish this evening. Valley fog is
likely to develop across the western Southern Tier and Black River
Valley. Valley fog will likely cause restrictions at KJHW into
Saturday morning.

Fog will diminish Saturday morning and daytime cumulus will begin to
form mid to late morning.

Outlook...

Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR. Just a slight chance for afternoon
thunderstorms across parts of the Srn Tier and Finger Lakes region.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR to MVFR cigs with scattered thunderstorms.
Wednesday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mainly VFR to MVFR,
with a chance of IFR or below in thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to build east across the lower Great
Lakes today relaxing the pressure gradient and supporting light
winds and waves today. As high pressure remains overhead throughout
the weekend, light winds and waves will persist.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ/HSK
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...EAJ