410
FXUS61 KBUF 131038
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
638 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will continue to build across the region today
and Sunday, which will support mostly dry and fair weather.
Additionally, expect warm and moderately humid weather this weekend
with highs ranging in the mid 80s to the low 90s. Active weather
will return Sunday night and Monday with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Showers continue to progress east across the Saint Lawrence Valley
this morning as a mid-level trough pushes northeast across the lower
Great Lakes. Across the western portions of the area, surface high
pressure has begun to settle across the region, supporting clear
skies and valley fog to form across the Southern Tier. Valley fog
will gradually dissipate shortly after sunrise this morning.

Surface high pressure, and westerly flow aloft will continue to push
across the area today through Sunday advecting drier, cooler air
across the region. Overall this will support mostly clear skies with
a slight chance for showers (mainly across the Finger Lakes region
this afternoon). Dry weather will then persist tonight through
Sunday. Similar to the night prior, patchy fog will be possible
tonight into Sunday. Temperatures today and Sunday will peak in the
mid to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Expect some unsettled weather to start the new work week as model
consensus continues to key in on a couple of potential convectively
augmented shortwaves moving through the broad trough over the Great
Lakes and Northeast, which may cross the area on Sunday night and
Monday respectively bringing better chances for showers and
thunderstorms back into western and northcentral NY. Though the
track, timing, and strength of these features is typically difficult
to forecast, as mentioned above the bulk of the guidance packages is
in surprisingly decent agreement on said convective elements.
However, there is still a bit of disagreement on exact timing and
track. For these reasons, will cap PoPs in the high Chc range for
now. A more pronounced southwesterly flow will also set up on
Monday, along with diurnally driven lake breeze circulations. A very
warm and more humid air mass will be in place to start the new work
week, so would also expect at least some scattered afternoon/early
evening convection to fire along and inland of these boundaries as
well, but again exact location of said boundaries is still in
question.

A weak area of transient high pressure will try to nudge in across
the area Monday night, however with model guidance advertising yet
another convectively augmented shortwave right on its heels, will
keep SChc to low Chc PoPS for showers/storms in the forecast due to
the continued uncertainty in track and timing of these features.

Have high confidence in very warm and sticky conditions prevailing
during this period. Mid 80s to near 90 for highs on Monday will be
bookended by warm and sticky lows in the upper 60s to low 70s for
most both Sunday night and Monday night. Heat indices Monday will
likely be in the low 90s for the bulk of the lake plains, Genesee
Valley, and Finger Lakes region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Amplifying western CONUS upper ridge midweek will aid in a digging
upper level trough across the Great Lakes and Northeast for the
middle and latter portions of next week. This will translate to very
warm and humid conditions with showers and thunderstorms to start
the period, being replaced by cooler and less humid weather in the
wake of a cold frontal passage, along with mainly dry conditions for
the latter half of next week.

Low pressure will slide across northwestern Ontario into west-
central Quebec Tuesday into Wednesday. In the process the system
will send a prefrontal trough and an attendant cold front through
our region. This will keep unsettled weather in the forecast as the
prefrontal trough crosses the area Tuesday, followed by the cold
front sometime Tuesday night into the first half of Wednesday.
Timing of prefrontal trough Tuesday could produce a few feisty
storms with the aid of daytime heating, however shear profiles at
this time remain modest keeping more robust severe potential low.
Nocturnal passage of the cold front will also keep severe potential
for associated showers and storms on the low side, although shear
profiles do become more favorable just ahead of the cold front
Tuesday night, so can`t completely rule out the chance for a
nocturnal severe storm or two with a very moist and unstable air
mass in place. Otherwise, it will be another very warm and humid day
Tuesday with highs a couple ticks higher than those seen on Monday.

Cold front should be south and east of our area by Wednesday
afternoon, with a cooler and less humid air mass starting to make
inroads across the area from the northwest as expansive Canadian
sourced high pressure ridges in from the west. This will allow for
decreasing shower chances from northwest to southeast through the
second half of Wednesday. A secondary moisture starved cold front
will reinforce the cooler and drier air mass later next week with
highs in the 70s Thursday and Friday, along with much more
comfortable humidity levels as dew points fall back into the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As surface high pressure slides across the region early this morning
and through the rest of the day today, VFR conditions persist across
the area. Outside of this, valley fog is likely to develop across
the western Southern Tier and Black River Valley, restricting mainly
KJHW to IFR visibilities into the late morning hours.

Today will feature mainly VFR conditions with diurnal cumulus
developing in the late morning hours today. There is a slight
chances for afternoon showers and storms well inland of the lakes
across the Southern Tier and the Finger Lakes region. Dry weather
will then persist through tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday...Mainly VFR. Just a slight chance for afternoon
thunderstorms across parts of the Srn Tier and Finger Lakes region.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR to MVFR cigs with scattered thunderstorms.
Wednesday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mainly VFR to MVFR,
with a chance of IFR or below in thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to build east across the lower Great
Lakes this weekend, resulting in quiet conditions with light winds
and limited waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ
NEAR TERM...EAJ
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...EAJ
MARINE...EAJ/TMA