079
FXUS61 KBUF 201029
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
629 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue fine summer weather with low humidity
across our region today, with passing cirrus across the southern
zones, and bright sunshine to the north. A moisture starved cold
front will drop southward into our zones tonight and Sunday,
bringing a band of clouds. The next chance for widespread showers
and thunderstorms will arrive Tuesday, along with an increase in
humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure across our region to start the day is producing light
and variable winds, clear skies with just some thin cirrus passing
across southern zones.

Warm air advection from southwesterly flow aloft today, along with a
warmer start, will add several degrees onto our highs this afternoon
versus Friday. Highs this afternoon will be in the upper 70s to
lower 80s, or close to normal. Plenty of sunshine today, with just
slight increase in cloud cover across Allegany County as deeper
Atlantic moisture passes through central PA to ENY.

A cold front will drop southward from Canada tonight. This front is
rather moisture starved, but clouds will gather within a ribbon of
deeper 850-700 hPa moisture, with these clouds dropping across Lake
Ontario and points eastward later tonight.

A spotty shower is possible along the front across the North
Country, but many areas will remain dry. Lows tonight will drop back
into the mid 50s across interior SW NYS where skies will remain
mainly clear, while closer to the Lakes and east of Lake Ontario
lows will be around 60 to the lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A weak shortwave trough will move through the mid-level longwave
trough over northern Quebec Sunday, supporting a backdoor cold front
that will slide southeast into the region Sunday afternoon. Forcing
from the boundary in combination with modest diurnal instability
could bring a few spotty showers or an isolated thunderstorm. This
especially could be the case across the Niagara Frontier where some
lake breeze interaction may take place. The frontal boundary will
weaken and slide southeast through the region Monday. While the area
will remain mostly dry, a few afternoon showers will be possible
along the frontal boundary across southeastern portions of the area
from the interior Southern Tier into the Finger Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak broad, positively tilted trough will drop south from central
Canada into the Great Lakes region this week. This trough will allow
a gradual northward advection of GOMEX based moisture into the
Northeast.

Translating this pattern for the weather across the lower Great
Lakes, the increasingly unstable environment will allow for a return
to a much more unsettled pattern with chances for showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday. In general, chances will be
highest across the interior in the afternoon hours each day when
diurnal heating is at its strongest, while diminishing overnight and
into the morning hours. PWATs near or exceeding 1.7" within this
increasingly humid airmass will allow for periods of heavy rain,
though there remains typical long range model discrepancies on how
exactly the trough across the East will evolve which limits
certainty in timing, placement and amounts.

Temperatures Tuesday will top out in the low to mid 80s in most
spots, while reaching the upper 70s and low 80s Wednesday and
Thursday though with increased humidity. Overnight lows with range
in the 60s each night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
For the 12Z TAFS, VFR flight conditions are found and these
conditions will likely continue through the TAF cycle. Cirrus
spilling across the Southern Tier this early morning along with
a slightly drier boundary layer will limit fog potential to just
the well inland valleys. A weak cold front will drop southward
tonight, bringing an increase in clouds for KART, but remaining
within the VFR flight range.

Outlook...

Sunday and Monday...VFR.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR/MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms
possible.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain across the eastern Great Lakes today with
light winds and waves.

A weak cold front will fade as it drops southward across the eastern
Great Lakes early Sunday. This will result in a weak pressure
gradient only supporting gentle to occasionally moderate breezes and
waves two feet or less on Lake Ontario to close the weekend.

This weak pressure gradient will yield light winds and again minimal
waves for Monday, to start the new work week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...EAJ/TMA
LONG TERM...EAJ/PP
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas