119
FXUS61 KBUF 071812
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
212 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over Lake Erie will slowly drift east and
provide us with fair dry weather through Monday night. A slow
moving cold front will then sag across and stall over our region
late Tuesday and Wednesday. Remnants from Beryl will circulate
up across the forecast area during this period to help set the
stage for the potential of some areas to receive multiple inches
of rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Great weather will be found throughout the region for the rest
of the afternoon...as high pressure centered over Lake Erie will
provide us with wall to wall sunshine and temperatures that will
mainly top out in the lower 80s.

Another pleasant...star filled night can be expected tonight with
temperatures settling into the upper 50s to lower 60s. As was the
case this morning...the clear skies and light winds will encourage
fog to form in the Southern Tier valleys.

High pressure wedged from New England to West Virginia will then
guarantee another sunny day to start the new work week. Temperatures
aloft will nudge upwards into the mid teens C...so that will allow
Mondays max temperatures to climb WELL into the 80s to near 90.

While fair dry weather will persist Monday night...it will be a
notably warmer night with lows ranging from the mid 60s across the
Southern Tier and North country to nearly 70 degrees elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tuesday our region will be near the advection of tropical moisture
from two separate source. A southerly flow will bring Atlantic
moisture northward from the Southeast. This moisture will track
into our Finger Lakes region. Meanwhile ahead of a mid level
trough, moisture from Tropical system Beryl will be streaming by
just to our west. Between these two moisture plumes, much of our
CWA will reside. On Tuesday, some lake breeze circulation showers
and thunderstorms may form. Tuesday will also feature very sultry
conditions with heat index values forecast to be in the low to
mid 90s for portions of the Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes
region.

Tuesday night as moisture from Beryl deepens across our region,
additional showers and perhaps thunderstorms will begin to increase
from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
...Significant Rains from Beryl Possible Wednesday...

The two plumes of tropical moisture mentioned in the short term
will converge upon our region Wednesday, resulting in a deep
warm layer of over 14K feet with PWAT values 2.00 to 2.25 inches.

In the lower levels convergence ahead of a 35 knot LLJ, along with a
warm front draped over our region will combine with diffluent flow
aloft, and lift along multiple shortwaves to spread a period of rain
across our region. A mid level ridge may focus the better lift
(diffluent flow) aloft to our north and west Wednesday...resulting
in heavy rain to our west. But this heavier rain will advance into
our region. By Wednesday night the surface warm front will be
lifting towards the eastern Lake Ontario region, with a favored area
for heavy rain here overnight. At this time WPC has upgraded our
eastern two thirds of the CWA into a slight risk for excessive
rainfall through Wednesday night. There is still a lot of
uncertainty as to where the axis of heavier precipitation will be.

Wednesday and Wednesday night will also have chances for
thunderstorms, with MUCAPE values towards 1500 J/KG Wednesday
diminishing Wednesday night east of Lake Ontario.

The mid level trough will be slow to push eastward and flatten,
leaving chances for additional showers and thunderstorms Thursday
through Saturday, especially during the peak heating of the
afternoon. Heavy rain chances will be less this period with the axis
of deeper moisture now to the east, along with a weakening LLJ.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure slowly moving across the region will guarantee
fair, mainly VFR weather through the 18z TAF cycle. The main
exception will be in and around any valley fog and low stratus that
develops in the Southern Tier late tonight. This will likely cause
reductions to vsbys down to IFR at KJHW between 07z/08z to 12z.

Any fog will quickly lift and dissipate after sunrise Monday, with a
return to areawide VFR.

Outlook...

Tuesday..Mainly VFR. A low chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Wednesday...MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely. Restrictions
to IFR possible in heavy showers.
Thursday...Restrictions possible with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Friday...Mainly VFR with a low chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build over the lower Great Lakes through early
next week. This will bring a period quiet conditions through mid
week with a weak pressure gradient favoring light winds and limited
waves. The light flow will allow for some local lake breezes to form
each day.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas/RSH
AVIATION...PP
MARINE...Apffel/HSK