276
FXUS61 KBTV 171748
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
148 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Another hot day is expected today, especially in Vermont where
temperatures will again be in the mid to upper 80s. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop midday today as a slow moving front
gradually progresses eastward. Some showers may contain heavy
rainfall and some gusty winds, though the threat for severe
weather today is lower than yesterday. Conditions become drier
and cooler from Thursday onward.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 148 PM EDT Wednesday...Showers with some embedded thunder
have developed as expected but it appears the strongest cells
may stay just south of the forecast area where SPC has issued a
severe thunderstorm watch. Southern Vermont still has the best
chance of seeing any strong storms, but it appears central and
northern VT may just see more garden variety stuff, which no one
will complain about.

Thunderstorms and showers will come to an end tonight, with
generally drier conditions expected Thursday. An upper level
shortwave will move through Thursday, so can`t rule out a brief
light shower or two, but have kept PoPs capped in the 10-20
percent range. Much lower PW values will keep any showers light
in intensity. Highs Thursday will be refreshingly cool for most
areas, with values topping out in the 70s to low 80s. Humidity
levels will also be noticeably lower.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday...Pleasant weather is expected for the end
of the work week as high pressure settles over the region. A weak
upper shortwave will cross overhead Thursday night, but with little
in the way of moisture, don`t expect much beyond some passing cloud
cover and perhaps a sprinkle or two. Friday will feature partly to
mostly sunny skies, highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s with comfortable
dew points in the 50s. Both Thursday night and Friday night will see
perfect sleeping weather with low humidity and lows in the 50s to
around 60F. A few of the more sheltered locations in the Adirondacks
and Northeast Kingdom could even drop into the upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 340 AM EDT Wednesday...Fairly quiet weather will persist
through the weekend and into early next week. Ridging will gradually
give way to a weak cold front moving southward out of Canada. This
boundary will be fairly moisture starved, but can`t rule out a few
showers as it slowly crosses our region Saturday night and Sunday.
The main impact though will be increased cloud cover and slightly
cooler temperatures on Sunday, especially in northern areas. Dry
weather resumes thereafter, though precipitation chances will
increase on Tuesday as another stronger cold front approaches from
the north while low pressure lifts up into the Northeast CONUS.
Temperatures will remain seasonable through the period, with highs
in the mid 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 50s to around 60F.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 18Z Thursday...Predominantly VFR conditions are
expected through the period with scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the region this afternoon abating after
sunset. Confidence of any storms hitting a terminal is low so
have just included VCTS for now and will handle with amendments
as needed. Otherwise, BKN clouds today will trend to FEW-SCT
overnight with low confidence of fog as winds just off the deck
may inhibit formation. Fair weather cumulus and VFR are expected
for Thursday. Winds today will be SSW around 8kts, lowering to
3-5kts overnight and then NW 8-10kts Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Duell
NEAR TERM...Duell/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Lahiff