829
FXUS61 KBTV 180204
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1004 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms across portions of the region this
afternoon will shift east and diminish this evening as a cold
front sweeps through the forecast area. Cooler and drier weather
returns thereafter for the end of the week and into the weekend
with along with a long awaited break in humidity. A few showers
are possible Saturday night into Sunday, but dry weather
generally prevails into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 953 PM EDT Wednesday...The cold front continues to slowly
push its way eastward, with some showers ahead of it. Sky cover
and precipitation changes were adjusted to better reflect the
current radar and satellite observations across the region.
Otherwise, the forecast remains in good shape and no other
changes were needed.

Previous Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms along a pre-
frontal trough will continue to track east through Vermont this
afternoon and will clear the Connecticut River Valley this
evening. So far, all the storms have been more of your typical
summer-like ones with brief heavy rain up to a half inch, gusty
winds up to 35 mph, and some rumbles of thunder, but overall
nothing has been particularly strong and the threat is
diminishing for any severe. After sunset we should see quiet
weather develop as an upstream cold front currently on the
doorstep of the St. Lawrence Valley begins to move through the
region, and skies should gradually clear from west to east
through the night. Confidence is low on the potential for fog
due to winds around 10kts about 500ft off the surface, so have
omitted from the forecast for now.

On Thursday, an upper trough will swing through the area but
with high pressure building in at the surface we shouldn`t see
anything more than an increase in fair weather clouds and
perhaps an isolated shower over the higher terrain. Temps will
be much cooler than previous days in the upper 70s to low 80s
and dewpoints will be noticeably lower in the 50s in the
afternoon which will be the first time BTV is lower than 60
since July 4th. Clear skies and light winds will prevail for
Thursday night with areas of dense fog likely in the usual river
valleys. Lows will be comfortably in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 319 PM EDT Wednesday...High pressure will dominate the
weather on Friday and lead to mostly sunny skies and dry
weather. The humidity will continue to stay low, with dew points
generally remaining in the 50s. Winds will go mostly calm
overnight and with the low humidity, there should be efficient
radiational cooling. This will cause lows to drop into the 50s
and upper 40s in most areas. Areas right along Lake Champlain
may get stuck in the low 60s. Overall, it will be good sleeping
weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 319 PM EDT Wednesday...Pleasant weather featuring low
humidity and cooler temperatures will continue for much of this
period. Highs look to generally be in the upper 70s and 80s and
dew points will generally be in the 50s or low 60s. A cold front
will move through Saturday night into Sunday and it will bring
a few showers. These will be moisture starved and there will not
be any significant instability so there are no severe or
flooding threats. The exact timing is unclear but despite the
showers, most of the time it will be dry. The main effect of
this front will be bringing another shot of dry and relatively
cool air into the region for the start of next week. This
generally dry period will provide a decent amount of time for
the rivers to drop. More widespread rainfall may make its way
back into the region for Wednesday as a more moisture-laden
system makes a run at the region.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...Predominantly VFR conditions are expected
through the period. BKN clouds will trend to FEW-SCT overnight
with low confidence of fog as winds just off the deck may
inhibit formation. Fair weather cumulus and VFR are expected for
Thursday. Winds will be SSW around 8kts, lowering to 3-5kts
overnight and then NW 8-10kts Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Kremer/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Lahiff/Neiles