590
FXUS61 KBTV 211129
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
729 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front dropping south this morning will produce scattered
showers through the morning hours. High pressure will build into the
region this afternoon with dry weather expected through the daylight
hours on Monday. Rain chances will begin to increase Monday night as
a warm front lifts northwards with periods of rain expected through
Thursday. Rain could be heavy at times, especially on Thursday, but
no flooding is expected at this time.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 724 AM EDT Sunday...Rain showers have been dwindling over
the past few hours but there still remains a cluster of showers
over northern New York which should dissipate over the next few
hours. The cold front has been able to move into the North
Country early this morning with plenty of dry air just north of
the International Border. We should see this drier air filter
into the region this morning leading to decreasing clouds.

Previous Discussion...A cold front continues to make steady but
slow progress this morning with 3 AM observations still showing the
frontal boundary just north of the International Border. Scattered
to numerous rain showers have developed ahead of the cold front near
the International Border with rainfall amounts ranging from a few
hundreths of an inch in northern Vermont up to a third of an inch
across far northern New York. Models, surprisingly, are not handling
this precipitation very well with the 00Z run failing to initialize
the ongoing shower activity ahead of the cold front. Initially, it
appeared that showers would be isolated to maybe scattered, However,
current radar imagery shows a full line of showers extending from
southern St. Lawrence County into the Northeast Kingdom. The use of
forecast soundings was very beneficial to the forecast tonight
because although models are struggling to depict ongoing rainfall,
the soundings do show weak omega and very shallow instability ahead
of the front. These two parameters are likely allowing the more
widespread shower activity that should slowly dwindle with time as
the convergence along the front weakens as we head into the late
morning hours.

A dry air mass is expected to quickly filter into the North Country
in the wake of the cold front this afternoon with plenty of sunshine
expected by early to mid-afternoon. Temperatures will be quite
pleasant with highs in the 70s and decreasing humidity. Given the
clearing skies, it`s a safe bet that we will be in store for patchy
to possibly dense fog in the favored locations of northern New York
and Vermont with high pressure building overhead as well. This fog
will mix out after sunrise on Monday with another nice day, albeit
noticeably warmer, on tap across the region. Cloud cover will
increase later in the day on Monday as rain showers begin to lift
north towards southern Vermont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 341 AM EDT Sunday...A meandering frontal boundary and
increasing moisture will bring chances for rainfall Monday night
into Tuesday, marking the start of a fairly active period of
weather. There is still some uncertainty with the actual location of
where the frontal boundary will set up, but model guidance continues
to show the axis of heaviest precipitation closer to southern New
England. Despite this, precipitable water values will near 1.7
inches which will allow for some possible periods of moderate to
heavy rainfall, although marginal instability across the region will
help limit convection and the heavy rain threat. Temperatures during
the day on Tuesday will be seasonable, with highs in the 70s to low
80s and lows generally in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 341 AM EDT Sunday...The active period of weather continues
through mid-week as the frontal boundary remains across the
Northeast. Several impulses will traverse along the boundary
Wednesday and Thursday, bringing additional chances for rainfall.
While no day will be a complete washout, several rounds of showers
and possible thunderstorms can be expected across the region.
Looking at model soundings, Thursday currently looks more favorable
for developing convection with the primary threat being heavy
rainfall given the high PWAT values and decent and modest tall and
skinny CAPE profiles. With continued chances for showers each day,
WPC has the forecast area in a Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook
(ERO) for Thursday, although the main threat will be in any
locations that receive multiple rounds of showers and heavier
rainfall. The potential for showers is still dependent on where the
frontal boundary sets up, so any shifts will influence how much
rainfall to expect and trends will continue to be monitored.
Temperatures will generally remain seasonable, with high
temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s although it will feel quite
humid with dewpoints increasing into the 60s to lower 70s.

Heading into the weekend, a period of drier and seasonable weather
looks to return as a cold front ushers in a drier airmass and high
pressure begins to build into the region. Temperatures will increase
through the weekend under strong ridging, with some locations
warming into the upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12Z Monday...Showers will continue across central
Vermont and northern New York through 14Z with pockets of MVFR
and IFR conditions within these showers. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the remainder of the
day before widespread valley fog develops tonight.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Clay
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Clay