978
FXUS61 KBTV 190540
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
140 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet and dry weather conditions are expected the next couple
days. Some valley fog will be possible both tonight and
tomorrow, with seasonable nighttime temperatures in the 50s to
lower 60s. A front will approach from the north Saturday night
and early Sunday, but will wash out. This will produce only
isolated to scattered shower activity with the highest chances
along the international border before reinforcing the region
with more dry and seasonable weather. A series of weather
disturbances will bring increasing rain chances for the later
half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Friday...Conditions are cooling moderately fast
with decent radiational cooling. It`s already the coolest it has
been since July 3rd, and it is welcoming. Am contemplating
pulling back on the fog as a stratus deck is building up against
the mountain slopes and winds off the surface remain strong. But
it`s hard to argue with climatology and just how wet the ground
is with the coolest conditions in two weeks. Temperatures range
from 48 at SLK to 64 here at BTV. Despite already being near the
low, some clouds may halt cooling at SLK. So have held things
steady and bumped up sky at higher elevations. The rest remains
on track tonight.

Previous discussion...
A nice seasonable weather day is on tap Friday with mid 70s to
lower 80s and mid 50s for dewpoints. High pressure will stretch
out west to east and a large trough will begin to carve itself
out in northern Quebec Province. This will turn our flow from
west- northwest to west-southwest. A subtle difference, but one
that will result in gradual warming. So overnight lows should
mainly stay in the 50s for most locations, with lower 60s in the
broader Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys. Expect some fog in
eastern Vermont river valleys with more favorable conditions,
but winds just off the surface remain near Saranac Lake.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 310 PM EDT Thursday...Dry weather will prevail on
Saturday but increasing southwesterly flow will cause
temperatures to rise back above climatological normals. Humidity
will remain low with dew points mostly staying in the 50s.
Continued winds and increasing cloud cover will keep Saturday
night temperatures higher than previous nights. The higher
terrain should fall into the 50s but the broad valleys will
likely stay above 60. A cold front will pass through the region
from north to south and it will bring a few showers overnight.
They will be scattered over northern areas but slowly fall apart
as they move south and southern Vermont may remain dry. There
will be a strong mid-level inversion during this period and that
will prevent any thunderstorm formation. An overall dry airmass
and weak synoptic forcing will keep rainfall totals low.
Everywhere should generally see around a tenth of an inch or
less so there are no flooding concerns.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 310 PM EDT Thursday...Dry weather generally prevails
through Monday though a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out
Monday afternoon. A more meaningful low makes a run at the
region for mid week and it may bring some more meaningful
rainfall. PWATs look to rise back above 1.5 inches and the
atmosphere will be supportive of heavy rainfall. Right now the
GFS, Canadian and Euro ensembles favor the most rain falling
over southern New England and the Tri-State Area. The
probability of receiving more than an inch of rain within 24
hours for our region is less than 20 percent for these
ensembles, but a northward shift of precipitation would bring
some of the heavier rain farther north. Even farther south where
they are currently placing the heavier rain, the probabilities
of greater than 2 inches are less than 10 percent. Potential
embedded convection would lead to some higher totals that the
global guidance gives now, but even then, it continues to not
give the signals of a significant flood threat, but it will be
watched closely.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Some stratus is building against higher
peaks tonight, with pockets of FEW or SCT clouds noted at
2500-4000 ft agl. Thinking clouds should remain confined to
peaks, and in addition to winds at 500 ft agl that this should
preclude fog. Still, hinted at 4SM at KMPV and KSLK in TEMPOs
given climatology. Light northwest winds at 5 knots or less
expected tonight, though terrain influences may cause brief
shifts or variability. After 12z, west to northwest winds pick
back up at 4 to 8 knots and become light and variable after 00z.
Fair weather cumulus with bases between 5000-7000 ft agl
expected this afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Haynes