416
FXUS61 KBTV 170547
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
147 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms east this afternoon and evening with
potentially strong to damaging wind gusts and heavy rain. One
more warm and humid day is expected with a few more storms
possible ahead of a cold front shifting east during the
afternoon. Vermont and northern New York will then enjoy a
reprieve from humid, wet weather with dry conditions and
seasonable temperatures. Temperatures will begin to warm over
the weekend, but a reinforcing cold front from the north will
help maintain dry, seasonable condition for a bit longer after
some scattered showers on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1209 AM EDT Wednesday...Yesterday evening`s
thunderstorm/flooding threat has come to an end as showers
depart the region to the east. Total rainfall amounts for the
last 12 hours generally range form 0.25 to 1.25 inch, with some
locally higher amounts in the northern Adirondacks and into
portions of central Vermont. Main forecast challenge tonight
will just be potential for some patchy fog development in areas
that clear out. However, enough winds will remain just off the
surface to prevent widespread formation of fog, so any fog that
does form will be localized. Previous discussion follows...

Heading into Wednesday, we have a proper cold front swinging
southeastwards. Showers and storms still appear likely to form,
mainly across Essex County, New York and the southern and
eastern portions of Vermont. With about 35 to 40 knots of shear
and 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE, a few stronger storms may develop
before stable air drives eastwards as an upper trough moves
through. It will not be quite as hot (excepting the lower
Connecticut River Valley), but another humid day will be on tap.
The front crosses overnight, so northern New York will enjoy mid
50s to lower 60s, but Vermont will have to wait one more day for
a refreshingly cool morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 257 PM EDT Tuesday...Some residual showers can be expected
Wednesday night, though drier air moving into the area will result
in decreasing precipitation rates. Best chance for some continued
overnight showers will be in Vermont, where a moisture boundary
will remain draped overhead during the overnight hours. With the
loss of diurnal instability, showers will be scattered in
nature but can`t rule out some early night embedded rumbles of
thunder. Overnight lows will be in the 60s for most areas, and
into the mid to upper 50s locally over the northern Adirondacks.

The moisture boundary over Vermont will clear the area by Thursday
morning, allowing for drier air to work in from the northwest.
Dewpoints Thursday will be noticeably lower than Wednesday`s, and
high temperatures will range from the low 70s to low 80s. An upper-
level shortwave dropping through will provide scattered clouds and
maybe an isolated shower or two...though afternoon shower potential
is capped in the 10-20 percent range. Some breezy afternoon
west/northwest winds with gusts in the 10-15 mph range are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 257 PM EDT Tuesday...The work week will close out with
expansive surface high pressure building to our west, which will
provide tranquil weather conditions for Friday and Saturday. With
the center of the anticyclone located over the midwest, our forecast
area will see refreshing northwesterly flow. High temperatures will
be in the 70s to mid 80s, with dewpoints in the 50s.

Saturday night into Sunday brings a slight chance of showers as a
cold front drops through, followed by another shot of cooler air to
start next week. Given overall lack of moisture, the passage of the
cold front will be largely uneventful with just some isolated to
scattered showers expected. Highs Sunday will be in the 70s to low
80s, with a gradual warning trend through Tuesday. On continued
northwesterly flow, no oppressive humidity on the horizon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06Z Thursday...Variable conditions are expected over the
first 6-8 hours of the TAF period with some areas seeing clear
skies and others BR and low stratus. Lowest ceilings will be at
KSLK and KMPV, but other TAF sites may see occasional low
stratus and mist during the overnight hours. After 12Z, expect
improvement to predominantly VFR. Showers and thunderstorms will
develop between 15Z and 00Z today, but coverage will be
scattered and thus have not included mention of TS in the TAFs
until more precise timing is refined. Ceilings should remain
mainly VFR even within storms, though visibilities will drop to
the MVFR/IFR range within heavier rain showers/tstorms.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Duell/Haynes
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Duell