779
FXUS64 KBRO 161937
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
237 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

The short term period will feature near normal temperatures and
generally rain-free conditions across Deep South Texas as high
pressure continues to influence the region. Precipitable water
values will continue to gradually increase through tomorrow, with
values ranging from 1.8-2.0 inches across the area as low level
southerly to southeasterly flow persists. This may result in a
slightly more active sea breeze during the afternoon hours, but most
guidance keeps any shower/storm development along and west of I-69.
Otherwise, tonight and tomorrow night will be mild with lows mostly
in the mid 70s and low 80s. High temperatures will be near seasonal
normals for mid July with highs ranging from the mid 80s along the
Lower Texas beaches to mid 90s further inland.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

As an upper level trough continues to push southward, a shortwave
will move along the western edge of the trough to help further
amplify it on Friday. Then a second shortwave will then amplify the
trough again on Sunday, which will then help push it into Central
Texas late Sunday into Monday. Looking at the events on the surface,
a cold front tries to move into Central Texas, but will stall out on
Thursday, well to the north of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley. The front will then slowly retreat towards the north over
the course of the weekend. Closer to home, the southeasterly flow
will allow for plenty of low-level moisture to move into the area,
which would allow for some isolated showers and thunderstorms. The
passage of the second shortwave would allow for a better environment
for the development of showers and thunderstorms for Sunday and
Monday.

As for the temperatures, low temperatures are expected to be mostly
in the 70s with a few places getting close to 80. The high
temperatures are expected to be in the 90s, with the heat indices
remaining below the Heat Advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR will prevail through the forecast period at all TAF sites.
Outside of streamer showers near the immediate coast and over the
Gulf waters, most of the region will remain precip-free. There is
a low potential for intermittent MVFR ceilings once again early
Wednesday morning. Otherwise, expect southeast winds ranging from
10-20 knots this afternoon, falling below 10 knots late this
evening through tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Tonight through Wednesday night...Light to moderate southeast winds
and low seas will prevail through the period as high pressure over
the Gulf of Mexico persists. Isolated streamer showers or
thunderstorms may be possible tomorrow morning.

Thursday through Next Tuesday...Surface high pressure is expected to
remain in place over the Northern Gulf through next Tuesday. Light
to moderate onshore flow with low to moderate seas will mean the
continuation of favorable marine conditions. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible Thursday through the early work week,
with the best chances being on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             94  81  95  80 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               95  77  95  76 /  10   0  10   0
MCALLEN                 97  80  98  79 /  10   0  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         97  79  98  78 /   0   0  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      88  82  89  82 /  10   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     92  79  93  78 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22-Garcia
LONG TERM....64-Katz
AVIATION...22-Garcia