007
FXUS65 KBOU 060626
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1226 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near average temperatures on Saturday before a dip on Sunday.

- Cooler temperatures and scattered storms are possible early
  Sunday morning until late afternoon across the region.

- Lower precipitation chances for the plains next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 713 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Water-vapor imagery shows lingering dry conditions across the
forecast area this evening. Current observations show temperatures
have begun their cool down and skies are expected to clear even
further this evening. The current forecast remains in good
standing, therefore no adjustments were needed aside from adding
some current obs for this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Saturday/...
Issued at 241 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

I don`t know about you but wow this weather has been amazing the
past few days. Low-80s for highs and just a few showers around, what
a fantastic stretch!

Flat cumulus across the region bodes well for decreasing rain
chances today and satellite is showing drier air punching in from
the north, along with some warming in the mid-levels. Temperatures
overnight will cool towards July averages owing to mostly clear
skies and the dry air in place.

On Saturday we do warm up nicely back towards the 90F mark with
slightly thicker mid-level heights and continued NW flow. Some late
day showers and thunderstorms, mainly confined to the far northeast
plains but with limited moisture during the day it looks spotty at
best

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday night through Friday/...
Issued at 241 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

An upper level trough will continue to bring northwest flow to the
forecast area through Monday. Cross sections indicate lingering low
level moisture mainly east of the I-25 corridor just before the
cold front approaches. CAMs favor scattered thunderstorms
developing early Sunday morning into early afternoon mainly for
the northeast corner. Given the upper level support as the trough
axis slowly pushes east and MU CAPE values between 200-400 J/kg,
any thunderstorm should remain sub-severe producing small hail and
brief heavy rainfall. As the trough axis deepens by Sunday
afternoon, another round of scattered storms are likely for the
high country and urban corridor. PWATs remain between 0.50-0.70
inches and faster storm motion should keep a low threat of
flooding for the burn areas. It is possible the environment may
become too stable after the cold front pushes through and with
limited heating, not expecting any threat of severe weather.
Expect much cooler temperatures Sunday afternoon with the urban
corridor and plains drop between 72-79F. Additionally, the
mountains and valleys should drop near 60-74F.

Not many changes for next week`s forecast. Winds aloft decrease
significantly and mid-level relative humidity values show drier
air entering our CWA. Monday through Thursday in the long term
period will have isolated showers and storms with light rainfall
mainly for areas west of the Divide. Surface standardized
temperature anomalies display 2-3 degrees above normal starting
Thursday and Friday afternoon which could indicate the return of
mid 90s for the lower elevations.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday/...
Issued at 1155 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024

There will be drainage winds and clear skies through the rest of
the night. Winds will shift to the northwest during the morning
hours tomorrow and could briefly gust up to 20 knots. By the
afternoon, wind direction will be hard to forecast but a northerly
component is expected. An outflow boundary from storms to the east
may move through the terminals in the evening with gusts up to 25
knots out of the east.

On Saturday night, there will be a shortwave trough that moves
through the area. It may initially bring light showers with
minimal impacts before midnight. After around 10Z, there could be
thunderstorms that develop which could lower ceilings to around 3
kft and reduce visibility. Sunday morning will likely have
stratus that impacts the terminals.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Bonner
SHORT TERM...Heavener
LONG TERM...AD
AVIATION...Danielson