741
FXUS65 KBOI 140944
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
344 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night...The area is well
encompassed in monsoon moisture this morning which has
translated to widespread cloud clover and high-based showers
(mostly virga). Southerly flow on the backside of an upper high
will keep the moisture in place through Monday while daytime
heating and a trough along the coast will provide the
instabilityand lift to support shower and thunderstorm
development. Today will be the most active day across the region
with most sites seeing a low chance of showers/storms (15-20%),
while areas of SE Oregon and higher terrain south of the Snake
River will see greater coverage. Showers and storms will drop
gusty outflow winds up to 50 mph, though stronger gusts are
possible. Cloud cover will bring a mild start, but also lead to
a slower warmup and lower high temperatures than recent days.
Have kept the heat products in place for today across lower
elevations. The Falls fire and Cow Valley fire, along with new
starts from yesterday`s lightning will keep smoke in the region
with the flow aloft pushing smoke to the east. Monday sees
another round of showers and thunderstorms over the higher
terrain of SE Oregon and SW Idaho south of the Snake River.
Otherwise clouds and minimal cooling aloft will take several
more degrees off of high temperatures, bringing most valley
sites below 100F. Tuesday is dry across the region as the upper
high rebuilds westward into Utah. Temperatures will respond
accordingly, warming a few degrees from Monday and likely
starting a new streak of 100 degree days at lower valley sites.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...The latest guidance is
in better agreement than yesterday on the evolution of the
upper level ridge. It appears the ridge will indeed build back
into our area and bring another period of extreme heat to the
region. The latest forecast calls for temperatures over 100 in
the lower elevations each day, with Boise forecast to see
another string of at least 5 consecutive days of 105 or higher.
Deterministic model agreement breaks down next weekend, when the
GFS shows a trough moving into the area Sunday while the ECMWF
and Canadian hold it off for several more days. Unless we get
lucky and the latest operational GFS happens to verify well, our
extreme heat will last beyond Sunday, and perhaps well into the
following week. There are slight chances of thunderstorms
throughout the long term, but models disagree significantly on
both timing and location.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR visibility due
to smoke, especially from e-central Oregon into the w-central
Idaho mountains. Isolated showers will continue this morning.
Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across much
of the area, especially across SE OR and SW ID to the south of
the Snake River. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast elsewhere.
Outflow gusts 45 to 55 kt near showers/storms. Surface winds:
NW-SW 5-15kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S-W 10-15 kt this
morning, becoming W to NW 10-20 kt this afternoon.

KBOI...VFR but continued smoky. Visibility could drop below 6
miles after 14/00Z times. High density altitude due to hot
daytime temperatures. Light winds.

&&


.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Excessive Heat Warning until midnight MDT tonight IDZ012.
     Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight IDZ423-426.
     Heat Advisory until midnight MDT tonight IDZ033.
OR...Excessive Heat Warning until midnight MDT tonight ORZ064.
     Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT /11 PM PDT/ tonight
     ORZ636-637.
     Heat Advisory until midnight MDT /11 PM PDT/ tonight
     ORZ062-063.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....SP
AVIATION.....SP