645
FXUS65 KBOI 150946
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
346 AM MDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night...A briefly
flattened upper ridge will bring most sites the `coolest` day in
the past week and for the week ahead. That said high
temperatures today will still run about 5 degrees above normal
and a few sites along the OR/ID border could still reach 100F. A
more westerly flow at mid-levels will contain deeper monsoon
moisture and thus shower/thunderstorm threat to SE Oregon and
areas along the ID/NV border. A low chance (15%) is also
possible in the eastern Boise mtns this afternoon. Tuesday will
see the upper high begin to rebound as a weak trough tracks
north along the coast. The accompanying moisture and lift
accompanying this trough will support a 20% chance of showers
and thunderstorms over SE Oregon Tuesday into Tuesday night.
During the day/evening gusty winds will be the main threat from
thunderstorms. The low chance of showers/storms shifts into the
mtns of SW Idaho Wednesday as the trough tracks northeastward
through WA. While Tuesday and Wednesday will see a warming air
mass, clouds and smoke could limit it from reaching full
potential, especially across SE Oregon. For this, have held off
on heat hazard products as Wednesday`s temperatures are
borderline.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...A strong upper level
ridge will continue to dominate our long term forecast. The
center of the high will move slowly from just west of the Four
Corners region into Nevada from Thursday to Monday. Heights over
our area will increase, and this generally means increasing
temperatures. Clouds/smoke can sometimes change that, however.
After a chance of storms Thursday south of the Snake River in
Idaho and perhaps in the eastern Boise Mountains, the area
should be dry and relatively cloud free through the remainder of
the long term. This will result in an extended period of
temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal, meaning another period
of extreme heat.

&&

.AVIATION...Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop this
afternoon generally south of a line from Burns to Mountain Home
to Twin Falls. Expect wind gusts of 45 to 55 kt near
thunderstorms. Smoke from wildfires may affect KBNO, KONO, KEUL,
and KBOI this morning, and KBNO this afternoon. High density
altitude due to hot daytime temperatures. Light winds: 5-15kt.
Winds aloft W to NW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...Mostly VFR. Continued hazy from area wild fires.
Visibility may get below 6 miles at times this morning but
should improve by late morning/early afternoon. High density
altitude due to hot daytime temperatures. Light winds.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....SP
AVIATION.....SP