Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
630 FXUS65 KBOI 011530 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 930 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from SE Oregon through Owyhee and southern Twin Falls counties, and also in the West Central and Boise mountains. Wind gusts to 45 mph and small hail are likely with the stronger storms. After today, it will be dry through the end of the week. The next few days will continue to have temperatures below normal, but we will heat up rapidly toward the end of the week, and extreme heat is now looking likely next week. We did an update earlier this morning to increase the chance of thunderstorms in some areas, and no additional updates are being made at this time. && .AVIATION...VFR with high based clouds and the chance of isolated showers/thunderstorms across southeast Oregon, and southwest and central Idaho after 20Z. Stronger storms could produce winds gusts of 20-25 kt. Surface winds: W/NW 5-10 kt, increasing to 12-20 kt after 18Z. KBOI...VFR with a few afternoon clouds, and showers possible around higher terrain after 20Z. Winds becoming W/NW 10-20kt after 18Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night...Slightly cooler than normal temperatures today through Wednesday night as an upper trough remains over the northern Intermountain Region. Limited moisture but significant instability will lead to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon in the central Idaho Mountains and eastern part of the Boise Mountains, and isolated weaker thunderstorms in and near the Owyhee Mountains. The stronger northern storms may have small hail and wind gusts to 40 mph. Moisture will shift east tonight and the trough will weaken slightly Tuesday. But a short wave trough off the BC coast will strengthen the main trough again Wednesday. A dry surface cold front will pass through our zones Wednesday with only a slight lowering of daytime temperatures, but west/ northwest winds will increase Wednesday afternoon to 15-30 mph over open terrain. Winds will decrease Wednesday evening and with clear skies and dry air, nighttime lows will dip to to 40s and 50s in the valleys and 30s to mid 40s in the mountains and higher basins. LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...Dry northwest flow will continue Thursday through at least Saturday as our area remains between an upper level trough over the Northern Plains and a strong upper level ridge centered along the California coast. This will bring dry and breezy conditions. Temperatures will also trend upward as the ridge gradually builds inland, rising from near normal on Thursday to around 10 degrees above normal on Saturday, which translates to around 100 degrees for the lower valleys. The main uncertainty after Saturday is how quickly the upper level ridge moves overhead. Very hot temperatures are likely as the ridge moves inland, with at least a 50% chance of highs 100F or warmer each day in the lower valleys Sunday into the following week, and a 5-15% chance of highs 110F or warmer. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...SP AVIATION.....MC SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....ST