536
FXUS64 KBMX 081800
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
100 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT MON JUL 8 2024

A boundary lingering over the northern 3rd of the state will move
northeast through the afternoon and evening today. South of this
boundary, in all but the the far northern counties, dewpoint
values will be in the upper 70s with heat indices around or
slightly above 105 through the afternoon. Instabilities will high
with PW values near max. Diurnal scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening with high
rain rates and strong winds possible.

Tonight, Beryl will move northeast across the Mississippi River
Valley, with southwest winds becoming prevailing in the low and
mid levels over Alabama. Convection should weaken and dissipate
after sunset, with the rest of the night expected to be dry. Winds
will begin to increase slightly in western Alabama as Beryl moves
west of the state. Models have been trending slightly eastward
with the track through MS, and if this trend continues, winds
could increase even more through Tuesday morning.

Tuesday, Beryl should be northwest of the area and continuing to
move to the northeast. An area of showers and thunderstorms is
expected Tuesday early afternoon through the evening. Scattered
to widespread coverage is possible with PW values increasing and
plenty of instability to work with. Winds will be breezy on
Tuesday, with gusts up to 20 mph possible in the western counties.

Highs Tuesday are expected to be in the low to mid 90s with
heat indices in the lower 100s and a few places could reach 105.
If the rain can begin early afternoon, the heat indices may not
reach Heat Advisory criteria. If the rain becomes more isolated
like a few earlier model runs were hinting, heat indices will be
able to reach Heat Advisory criteria. Due to the amount of
moisture and forcing, will err on the side of more storms and
lower heat indices, and will hold off on an advisory for now.
Though temperatures will still be soupy and miserable, especially
after not getting much relief overnight with lows still in the
70s.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT MON JUL 8 2024

Beryl will quickly advance northeastward across the Ohio Valley
Wednesday morning as a post tropical cyclone. An associated cold
front should be positioned southward across Central Alabama by
then, bringing a west-to-east advancement of cooler, drier air
that will effectively begin a period of lower rain chances that
will dominate much of the long-term forecast. Temperature-wise,
Wednesday will be the coolest day, and Thursday through Sunday
will generally feature a warming trend as low-level ridging
strengthens across the Southeast. Tropospheric moisture begins a
slow recovery this weekend, so low-end diurnal PoPs (20-30%) were
implemented for Sunday. Thus, no significant improvement is
expected for local drought. In fact, temperatures in the mid to
upper 90s toward the end of the period will likely worsen drought
conditions. Dewpoints in the 60s will keep heat indices below
advisory criteria for the period - so it`s basically a mixture of
good and bad news.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT MON JUL 8 2024

Scattered convection is possible today, with a general VCSH in all
TAFs to account for uncertainty in timing of any activity over a
TAF site. All activity should weaken after sunset with dry
conditions expected overnight. Beryl moves from southwest to
northeast tomorrow, with winds increasing slightly and activity
possible again in the early afternoon.

Note: AMD NOT SKED at KASN for missing ceilings.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and humid conditions will continue through tomorrow, with
scattered to numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Drier
air will move into the area on Wednesday which will provide lower
afternoon RH values for the rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     96  73  94  72 /  40  30  60  30
Anniston    94  76  92  74 /  50  30  70  20
Birmingham  96  77  93  74 /  60  40  70  30
Tuscaloosa  95  76  91  73 /  60  40  80  20
Calera      95  75  92  74 /  60  40  70  20
Auburn      92  76  92  75 /  60  40  70  20
Montgomery  95  76  94  75 /  60  40  80  20
Troy        94  74  93  74 /  60  30  80  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Bullock-Chambers-Chilton-Coosa-
Dallas-Elmore-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-
Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Russell-
Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....40
AVIATION...24