344
FXUS64 KBMX 201723
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1223 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2024

This AM, a stationary surface front is stretched from SW to NE
from SW LA to NE MS across portions of NRN AL and NEWD to E KY.
This boundary will nudge a bit further to the N this morning
leaving C AL on the warm/moist side of the front. In the upper
levels, there is a tight low over ERN Canada. However, the
gradient is rather loose over the ERN US as the base of the trough
turns a bit more SW TWD TX with ridging pinching in from the WRN
Atlantic and weak onshore flow on the Gulf Coast near the base of
the trough and weak flow over FL. In the lower levels, we have a
moist SRLY fetch to feed any perturbation interactions moving
around the upper trough base. Look for continued waves of
convection. Overall onshore flow increases further for Sunday.
Temperatures may be a degree or so warmer today in spots, but are
overall similar with little changes expected for Sunday...off and
on rain waves and repeat.

08

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2024

Very little change is expected in the overall pattern for much of
the upcoming week. The persistent trough through the Central US will
remain in place leading to at least some upper level forcing and
moisture transport across the region. This will lead to slightly
more active diurnal thunderstorm activity each day Monday through
Friday. High temperatures will be moderated somewhat, limited to the
80s to low 90s each day depending on exact timing and placement of
thunderstorms.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2024

An unsettled pattern will persist through this forecast cycle
with scattered to numerous showers and some thunderstorm activity
this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm potential will be best
near MGM through mid afternoon with much of the activity expected
across the southeast half of the area. Lower chances for showers
and a few storms will persist across the rest of the area through
the afternoon and into early evening. Overnight, expect best
chances for lingering showers and a few storms across the east and
southeast portions of the area. Some patchy fog may develop
across portions of the north and east portion of the area before
sunrise Sunday, followed by increased chances for showers and
storms areawide toward the end of this forecast period.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A rainy pattern is expected to continue through the weekend and
into the early part of next week. Generally light winds expected
aside from thunderstorm wind gusts. The humid airmass will keep
minimum relative humidity values in the 60 to 80 percent range.
Fog development is possible each night, especially in areas that
saw rain during the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  84  70  85 /  60  70  50  60
Anniston    70  83  71  85 /  70  70  60  60
Birmingham  72  84  72  85 /  60  70  50  60
Tuscaloosa  72  87  72  87 /  60  70  40  60
Calera      70  84  72  86 /  70  70  50  60
Auburn      70  83  72  85 /  70  70  50  60
Montgomery  72  86  72  87 /  70  70  50  60
Troy        71  87  72  87 /  60  70  40  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...05