431
FXUS64 KBMX 181804
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
104 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 100 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2024

Generally low-amplitude troughing extends southwest from Quebec into
the ArkLaTex region. At the surface, a cold front extends south
along the Eastern Seaboard before continuing west across northern
Alabama and towards Texas. A large surface ridge is building over
the Midwest associated with a 596dm ridge over the Desert
Southwest. This orientation continues to place Central Alabama
within a zone of deep west-southwesterly flow with moist
conditions in place across the Southeast. The combination of
surface heating, convergence along the weak front, and lift from
the troughing to our west will contribute to above average PoPs
both today and tomorrow. Highest chances are still focused during
the afternoon hours, but some activity may linger into the
evening.

Currently, the cu field is beginning to develop and some showers and
thunderstorms are forming to our north and west, but convection
really hasn`t initiated quite as early as it did yesterday. Still
expecting coverage to increase over the next few hours, and the
storms will likely be gusty again today. The front will stall
across the area tomorrow, and widespread showers and storms are
expected again by the afternoon. The higher PoPs will result in
highs in the 80s to lower 90s, so heat will not be as much of a
concern as it has been over the past week.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT THU JUL 18 2024

Medium-range guidance and ensembles have changed very little as
an upper-level pattern favors high rain chances through the extended
periods.  Essentially we will be in a blocking pattern with ridges
to our west and east. Only by the tail end of next week will we see
the ridge to our east, begin to build back into the area. This
pattern will allow for the continued presence of southwesterly flow
aloft, and southerly to southwesterly low-level flow off the Gulf.
These will combine to promote moist, unstable air for much of the
extended period. With higher than normal rain chances, we will see
below normal temperatures. We will need to watch for day-to-day
localized flooding into mid next week depending upon mesoscale
considerations. The synoptic signal is certainly there for a large
footprint of rainfall across the entire Southeast. Tuesday night
into Wednesday may be the highest PWATS we see through the extended,
so will need to keep an eye on these trends.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2024

An active pattern continues across Central Alabama, and convection
is expected to develop throughout the afternoon as a weak cold front
moves into the area. Each TAF site could see a storm today, and some
activity could linger into the evening. Patchy fog is expected to
develop overnight as well as IFR ceilings. Ceilings will slowly rise
throughout the morning tomorrow with improving visibility, but
flight criteria may still not improve much beyond IFR.

Note: AMD LTD TO WIND AND VIS at KASN UFN due to missing ceilings.

86/Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Each day will offer a higher than normal chance for showers and
thunderstorms across central Alabama. Fire weather elements are
not expected to be approached or exceeded over the coming days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     69  83  67  84 /  40  80  80  80
Anniston    71  83  70  84 /  50  80  80  80
Birmingham  71  83  70  85 /  50  80  70  80
Tuscaloosa  72  83  70  85 /  50  80  70  80
Calera      72  83  70  84 /  60  90  80  80
Auburn      71  86  70  85 /  60  90  70  80
Montgomery  72  88  70  88 /  70  90  70  80
Troy        71  89  69  88 /  60  90  70  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86/Martin
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...86/Martin