144
FXUS64 KBMX 041734
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1234 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2024

Upper level ridging remains centered over the Deep South this
morning, with a surface ridge extending southward along the
Atlantic Coast, angling around the southern end of the
Appalachians. Well to our north, within broad troughing across the
northern CONUS, a shortwave is moving out of the Rockies and into
the Northern Plains.

Today, the shortwave moves into the Upper Mississippi River
Valley with its associated surface low strengthening over the
Upper Midwest. Upper level ridging over the Deep South begins to
shift southward as troughing expands southward through the Plains.
Not much change in airmass is expected for Central Alabama, from
yesterday. For your Fourth of July celebrations, expect highs in
the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s this
afternoon. Heat indices will range from 100-106F, and a Heat
Advisory will remain in place. With slightly lower heights over
the area, isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible
this afternoon, with coverage decreasing with sunset.

As the trough moves across the Great Lakes tonight and tomorrow, a
front will approach the area from the northwest Friday morning.
With PWs around 2.5inches, decreasing mid level heights, and
better, although still weak, winds aloft, more widespread showers
and storms are expected. As moisture pools south of the front,
some locations could reach heat indices of 105-107F briefly before
rain provides some relief. Model trends show less of the area
hitting 105F on Friday, and with the uncertainty with rainfall
timing, will hold off on expanding Heat Advisory for now.

14

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT THU JUL 4 2024

An amplified pattern for July will persist through the forecast
period, with a trough over the north-central CONUS downstream of a
strong ridge over the western CONUS. A weakness will extend down
into the south-central CONUS, with Hurricane Beryl eventually
spinning down in the Rio Grande vicinity. A subtropical ridge will
persist over the eastern Gulf and southeast Atlantic coast, though
not as strong as it has been recently. This will place Central
Alabama under moist southwesterly flow aloft. Most of the guidance
has been trending further south with the frontal passage Saturday
though some guidance has recently trended back the other way.
Therefore, did not make any big changes to the forecast over the
weekend. A still warm but dry air mass will be in place north of the
front, while south of the front a tropical-like air mass will
persists with scattered to numerous showers and storms. Another heat
advisory may be needed for some of the southeast counties Saturday
depending on the progression of the front. The front should lift
back to the north by Monday with the tropical-like air mass that has
already been in place returning to all of Central Alabama. This
combined with weak waves moving through the base of the trough
should result in above average chances of showers and storms next
week, though one wild card will be if the ridge over the eastern
Gulf ends up being stronger than currently forecast. The increased
coverage of showers and storms should help keep heat indices just
below 105.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2024

VFR conditions will persist across much of the area this
afternoon and across the south-central areas overnight. Scattered
clouds with isolated showers and a few thunderstorms are expected
across much of the area this afternoon. Thunderstorm potential is
too low to include at any site but mentioned showers through 22z
followed by a prod30 through 04z tonight. Expect a decrease in the
activity overnight except for far northwest where a surface front
will approach the area, resulting in more clouds with continued
isolated showers overnight, expanding in coverage and area further
southeast through the morning on Friday.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hot and humid conditions continue today and tomorrow. Scattered
showers and storms are possible today, with more widespread
coverage expected on Friday as a front moves into the region.
With increased moisture, minimum RH values remain above 50
percent. 20-foot winds from the southwest to west will average
less than 10 mph through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     74  94  71  92 /  30  60  60  30
Anniston    75  92  74  91 /  30  60  60  40
Birmingham  76  95  74  93 /  30  60  60  30
Tuscaloosa  76  94  73  93 /  30  60  60  30
Calera      75  94  75  93 /  30  60  60  40
Auburn      74  93  75  91 /  30  60  60  70
Montgomery  76  94  75  93 /  30  60  60  70
Troy        74  94  73  92 /  30  50  50  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Chilton-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-
Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-
Pike-Russell-Shelby-St. Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-
Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....32
AVIATION...05